彬长矿区矿井涌水量与开采参数关联性分析及预测研究  

Analysis and prediction of the correlation between mine water inflow and mining parameters in the Binchang Mining Area

作　　者：王海宾 贾传伟 张思华 孙文亮 陈德峰 张同俊 张士川 杨华帅 张搏明 李杨杨[2] 刘英锋 樊敏 WANG Haibin;JIA Chuanwei;ZHANG Sihua;SUN Wenliang;CHEN Defeng;ZHANG Tongjun;ZHANG Shichuan;YANG Huashuai;ZHANG Boming;LI Yangyang;LIU Yingfeng;FAN Min(Shandong Energy Group Xibei Mining Co Ltd,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710018,China;College of Energy and Mining Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao,Shandong 266590,China;CCTEG Xi'an Research Institute(Group)Co Ltd,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]山东能源集团西北矿业有限公司,陕西西安710018 [2]山东科技大学能源与矿业工程学院,山东青岛266590 [3]中煤科工西安研究院(集团)有限公司,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《采矿与安全工程学报》2025年第1期73-84,共12页Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52004147,51974173,52474137);煤炭开采水资源保护与利用国家重点实验室2020年开放基金项目(GJNY-20-113-19);山东能源科技计划重大项目(SNKJ2022A15)。

摘　　要：针对彬长矿区巨厚含水层的复杂地质环境,为揭示涌水量与开采参数之间的关联性并提高预测的可靠性,分别从静态和动态角度分析了工作面顶板涌水量与推采长度、工作面斜长、采高、回采面积之间的关联性。基于灰色关联度理论和SPSS多元回归分析模型,探究了各主控因素的影响权重,构建了回采过程中稳定涌水量的预测模型,并将其分别与数值模拟预测值和现场实测值进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:从动态角度,涌水量与推采长度之间具有显著的时变关联性,工作面斜长与涌水量首次突增位置具有联动性,采高影响显示出明显的时空滞后特性,涌水量与回采面积呈幂函数关系,关键因素在不同开采过程及参数下呈现动态变化;从静态角度,斜高比与稳定推采比的整体分布规律相似,各主控因素对稳定涌水量的影响存在耦合关系。推采长度影响权重最大,同时各预测值的检验结果表明所建立的预测模型准确性高,研究成果可为彬长矿区水害预防提供一定的参考。This study aims to reveal the correlation between water inflow and mining parameters and improve the reliability of predictions in the complex geological environment of Binchang mining area where an ultra-thick aquifer occurs.To achieve this aim,the relationships between water inflow from the roof of the working face and a variety of parameters,including advancing length,inclined length of the working face,mining height,and recovery area,were analyzed first from both static and dynamic perspectives.Furthermore,the influence weights of these controlling factors were explored in the light of the grey correlation degree theory and the SPSS multivariate regression analysis model.Finally,a prediction model for stable water inflow during the mining process was established and compared with numerical simulation predictions and field measurements.The following research conclusions were reached.From a dynamic perspective,a significant time-varying correlation exists between water inflow and advancing length;the inclined length of the working face is linked to the location of the initial surge in water inflow;the influence of mining height exhibits an obvious lag both temporally and spatially;and the relationship between water inflow and recovery area conforms to a power function.These controlling factors change dynamically in different mining processes and under different mining parameters.From a static perspective,the ratio of inclined length to mining height is distributed in a similar pattern to the stable advancing ratio on the whole,and there is a coupled relationship among the controlling factors concerning their influences on the stable water inflow.Among all these key factors,the advancing length has the greatest influence weight on stable water inflow.Besides,the validation results demonstrate that the prediction model established in this study boasts higher reliability.The research findings can provide valuable reference for water hazard prevention in Binchang mining area.

关 键 词：涌水量 多因素 灰色关联度 预测模型 

分 类 号：TD32[矿业工程—矿井建设] TQ531[化学工程—煤化学工程]