内地与台湾地区产业关联演进的实证研究——基于投入产出的动态分析  

The Evolution of Industry Linkages between China's Mainland and Taiwan region:The Dynamic Analysis Based on Input-Output

作　　者：李非[1,2,3] 卢晓芳 LI Fei;LU Xiaofang(Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies,Xiamen University,Xiamen,361005)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院 [2]厦门大学两岸关系和平发展协同创新中心经济平台 [3]温州市台湾研究中心

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2024年第6期59-74,共16页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA127)。

摘　　要：本文利用2000年、2010年与2020年亚洲开发银行的《多区域投入产出表》,通过三区域投入产出模型,对比分析这三个不同年份内地、台湾地区、第三区域的乘数、溢出与反馈三大效应及其变化特征。对比中国内地与台湾地区对彼此的溢出效应系数,发现内地小于台湾地区,但是引入区域规模效应之后,由于内地具有更高的最终产出规模,内地对台湾地区的实际溢出效应比台湾地区对内地的实际溢出效应更高。细分产业层面分析显示,内地与台湾地区彼此溢出效应最高的产业为机械和电子通讯设备、电气及光学设备、运输设备这些先进制造业,其对两岸经济发展的带动作用较强。为促进两岸经济融合,内地应在产业政策方面重点支持这类产业的发展。Based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output Table of the Asian Development Bank in 2000,2010 and 2020,this paper compares and analyzes the multiplier,spillover and feedback effects of the mainland,Taiwan region and other regions in these three different years through the three-regional input-output model,as well as of their changing features.By comparing the coefficients of the spillover effect of the mainland and Taiwan region to each other,it is found that the coefficients of the mainland are smaller than the Taiwan Region,but after the regional scale effect is considered,it is discovered that the actual spillover effect of the mainland to the Taiwan Region is higher than that of the Taiwan Region to the mainland,because of a higher final output scale of the mainland.From the viewpoint of sub-industries,it is found that the industries with the highest mutual spillover effect between the mainland and Taiwan region are advanced manufacturing industries such as machinery and electronic communication equipment,electrical and optical equipment,and transportation equipment,which have a strong driving effect on the economic development of both sides of the strait.

关 键 词：内地 台湾地区 投入产出技术 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]