中国数字经济规模效应测算  

Calculation of Scale Effect of China's Digital Economy

作　　者：罗芳勇 张涛[1] 李石强 LUO Fangyong;ZHANG Tao;LI Shiqiang(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,102488)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2024年第6期175-191,共17页China Economic Studies

摘　　要：本文基于增长核算框架提出了宏观层面的规模效应测算方法,并结合2002—2020年投入产出数据和统计年鉴数据对中国数字经济规模效应进行了初步测算。测算结果显示:(1)中国数字经济规模效应伴随经济增长表现出周期性波动特征;(2)2009—2011年后危机时期从有效ICT投资不足转换为ICT投资过剩,表现出数字经济规模效应由正转负的特征;(3)2012—2017年是中国互联网的二次发展繁荣时期;(4)中国数字产业中间品投入贡献变化趋势可分为三个阶段,其中2013—2015年阶段表现为略微为负,而前后两个阶段均表现为正向规模效应。本文研究的政策含义在于数字经济投资需提前布局、多类型协同发展,如此才能最大化数字经济的规模效益。The article proposes a macro-level scale effect calculation method based on the growth accounting framework,and conducts a preliminary calculation of the scale effect of China's digital economy based on input-output data and statistical yearbook data from 2002 to 2020.The calculation results show that:first,the scale effect of China's digital economy shows cyclical fluctuation characteristics along with economic growth.Second,during the post-crisis period from 2009 to 201l,the scale effect of the digital economy caused by China's insufficient effective ICT investment was gradually evolving into a negative state caused by overinvestment in ICT.Third,the period from 2012 to 2017 was the second development and prosperity period of China's Internet.Finally,the changing trend in the contribution of intermediate goods investment in China's digital industry can be divided into three stages.The 2013-2015 stage showed a slightly negative performance,while the two stages before and after showed a positive scale effect.

关 键 词：数字经济 规模效应 ICT资本测算 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]