行稳方能致远:中国煤炭市场运行特征与价格政策评估  

Only by Standing Up Can Move Forward:Assessing the Operation Characteristics and Pricing Policy of China's Coal Market

作　　者：张赟懿 苏彤 王思泉 林伯强 Zhang Yunyi;Su Tong;Wang Siquan;Lin Boqiang(China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy,School of Management,Xiamen University;School of Management&Engineering,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学管理学院中国能源政策研究院 [2]南京大学工程管理学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2025年第2期101-113,共13页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“碳中和框架下的能源产业升级、环境污染治理与经济高质量发展”(72133003);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“‘双碳’目标对生产率的中长期影响测度与动态监测研究”(22JZD008);福建省自然科学基金青创项目“‘双碳’目标下中国煤炭市场政策量化评估研究”(2024J08014)的资助。

摘　　要：煤炭作为中国能源安全的“压舱石”,在积极稳妥推进碳达峰、碳中和目标进程中发挥重要作用。利用贝叶斯结构向量自回归(BSVAR)模型,本文首先分析了中国特色煤炭市场的历史形成机制,识别了“有效市场”和“有为政府”在煤炭市场中的协同作用,指明了煤价“行稳”的意义与途径;随后,基于BSVAR识别的煤炭政策冲击,构建时间序列反事实政策评估模型(Policy-TVAR),评估“双碳”目标下现行煤价政策工具的实施效果,从定价机制的角度厘清了煤炭市场的“致远”之路。研究发现,经济景气引发的需求冲击是煤炭价格趋势的决定因素;煤炭定价机制的调整则会改变特定需求冲击的影响程度,干预短期价格行情的形成。反事实政策评估表明,现行煤价政策工具能够基本满足煤炭市场所承担的经济任务需要,但是,如果考虑“双碳”长期目标,煤炭市场运行机制仍有优化空间。“双碳”目标下应当明确煤炭的角色定位,关注价格冲击源头,当前“长协价+市场价”的定价模式有利于发挥供需信号作用,阻隔供给侧风险对宏观经济的传导。在此基础上,应充分重视煤价政策工具对“双碳”目标的支持作用,动态调整煤炭市场化规则,促进煤炭市场与“双碳”能源转型进程有效对接。Coal,serving as a cornerstone for China's energy security,plays a crucial role in advancing the policy objectives of"carbon peaking"and"carbon neutrality"("dual-carbon goals").Using the Bayesian structural vector autoregression(BSVAR)model,this paper analyzes the historical operation mechanism of China's coal market,identifying the synergy of"effective market"and"effective government",and pointing out the significance and path of"stabilizing"coal prices.Then,based on the coal policy shocks identified by BSVAR,a time series counterfactual policy evaluation model(Policy-TVAR)is constructed to evaluate the effectiveness of the current coal pricing policy instruments in aligning with the"dual-carbon goals"and to clarify the optimization direction of the coal market pricing mechanism.This study finds that demand shocks,driven by economic growth,are the primary determinants of long-term coal price trend.Adjusting the coal pricing regime can change the impact of specific demand shocks,thereby affecting short-term price fluctuations in the coal market.Findings from the counterfactual policy evaluation show that the current coal pricing regime can meet its policy tasks related to stabilizing the macroeconomy.However,its effectiveness may wane when considering the long-term energy transition objectives associated with the"dual-carbon goals".Some targeted policy implications are summarized.On the one hand,it is essential to clarify the role of the coal market and closely monitor the sources of price shocks during the"dual carbon"transition.The current pricing regime,characterized by long-term pricing agreements and market signals,effectively balances supply and demand dynamics while mitigating supply-side risks to the macroeconomy.On the other hand,the supporting role of coal pricing policy instruments should receive more attention in promoting the evolution of the"dual-carbon goals",and an important task is the dynamic adjustment of the coal pricing regime to effectively support the ongoing alignment of the coal market wit

关 键 词：能源价格 供求冲击 碳达峰碳中和 煤炭定价机制 时间序列估计 

分 类 号：F764.1[经济管理—产业经济] F426.21