经济结构转型背景下的货币政策传导效果研究  

Research on the Transmission Effect of Monetary Policy under the Background of Economic Structural Transformation

作　　者：邹澜[1] 邱潮斌[1] 刘生福[1] 李航 罗嗣源 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行,北京100033

出　　处：《上海金融》2024年第11期3-18,共16页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：近几年,我国经济结构加快转型,深入理解货币政策传导效果必须结合经济结构转型升级的大背景。本文构建四部门-两阶段货币政策传导理论分析框架,研究发现,货币政策由中央银行到金融市场的传导效果较好,但从金融市场到实体经济的传导仍面临一些制约,这些制约与宏观形势变化、经济运行机制以及预期等因素有关。实证检验结果证实了理论推导的结论,政策变量到金融市场中介目标之间的传导是有效的,金融市场指标到投资、消费等实体经济变量之间的传导效果相对偏弱。此外,研究发现,近年来我国数量型货币政策调控的传导效率逐渐下降,价格型调控的传导效率持续上升。建议坚持走中国特色金融发展之路,发挥宏观政策合力,打通货币政策由金融市场到实体经济传导的堵点;同时,适应我国金融市场发展和经济结构转型升级的新形势,不断推动货币政策框架转型。In recent years,the transformation of China’s economic structure has accelerated.In order to deeply understand the transmission effect of monetary policy,it’s necessary to consider the background of economic structure transformation and upgrading.This paper establishes a theoretical analysis framework of four-sector and two-stage monetary policy transmission.We find that monetary policy can be effectively transmitted from the central bank to the financial market.However,there are still some constraints during the transmission from the financial market to the real economy,which are related to factors such as changes in the macro economic situation,economic operating mechanisms and expectations.The empirical test results confirm the conclusion of theoretical derivation.The transmission between policy variables and financial market intermediary targets is effective,while the relationships between financial market indicators and other real-economy variables,such as investment and consumption,are relatively weak.We also find that,in recent years,the transmission effect of quantitative-based monetary policy is gradually declining,while the transmission effect of price-based monetary policy is rising.It is suggested that we should stick to the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics,and make full use of the concerted efforts of macro policies to dredge the transmission channels of monetary policy from the financial market to the real economy.At the same time,we should adapt to the new situation of the development of China’s financial market and the transformation and upgrading of economic structure,and constantly promote the transformation of monetary policy framework.

关 键 词：经济结构转型 货币政策传导 数量调控 价格调控 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]