基于场景式推演的作战方案评估框架研究  

Research on the Framework of Combat Plan Evaluation Based on Scenario-based Deduction

作　　者：赵东海 闫科 杨阔 杜凯 逄金刚 ZHAO Donghai;YAN Ke;YANG Kuo;DU Kai;PANG Jingang(PAP Command College,Tianjin 300161;College of Joint Operations,National Defense University,Shijiazhuang 050084;China Coast Guard Academy,Ningbo 315000)

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队武警指挥学院,天津300161 [2]国防大学联合作战学院,石家庄050084 [3]武警海警学院,宁波315000

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2025年第1期1-6,共6页Ship Electronic Engineering

摘　　要：如何在短时间内快速评估作战方案,辅助指挥员科学定下作战决心,成为作战筹划阶段面临的突出问题。论文借鉴自然决策RPD模型,提出了基于场景式推演的作战方案评估方法,分析了作战方案、作战场景、作战态势的关系,明确了基于场景式推演的作战方案评估的实施步骤,并结合实例验证了评估方法的可行性。How to quickly evaluate the combat plan in a short time and assist the commander to make a scientific combat deter⁃mination has become a prominent problem in the stage of operational planning.Based on the natural decision-making RPD model,this paper puts forward an evaluation method of combat plan based on scenario-based deduction.This paper analyzes the relation⁃ship among combat plan,combat scenario and combat situation,and clarifies the implementation steps of combat plan evaluation based on scenario-based deduction,and validates the feasibility of the evaluation method with an example.

关 键 词：作战方案 作战场景 评估 

分 类 号：E83[军事—战术学]