2024年世界船海市场评述与2025年展望  

Review of World Ship and Marine Market in 2024 and Prospect in 2025

作　　者：周贻来 魏梅 高珏 祝明思 ZHOU Yilai;WEI Mei;GAO Jue;ZHU Mingsi(Marine Design&Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200011,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船舶及海洋工程设计研究院,上海200011

出　　处：《船舶》2025年第1期11-26,共16页Ship & Boat

基　　金：国家部委重大专项(CBG4N21-1-1)。

摘　　要：2024年世界经济保持相对稳定的增长,但不同经济体间的经济增长分化继续加大。受红海等地区地缘冲突影响,能源价格上涨、运输成本增加,以集装箱运输为代表的海运市场表现活跃。船舶行业主要指标保持增长,全球新造船订单量同比增长65%(以载重吨计),中国新造船订单所占全球市场份额扩大至75%。新造船订单中,替代燃料船舶占比达到47%,集装箱船同比增长121%(以标准箱计),油船同比增长48.9%,散货船同比增长22%,超大型液氨运输船同比增长79.3%。全球手持订单量同比增长37.62%,其中集装箱船同比增长2%,油船同比增长215%,散货船同比增长56%。预计2025年船舶行业主要指标将持续增长,但增速下降,绿色化仍是行业发展热点。In 2024,the world economy maintained relatively stable growth with increasing economic growth differentiation among different economies.Energy prices and transportation costs have increased due to geopolitical conflicts such as the Red Sea,resulting in significant growth in the transportation market led by container ships.Key indicators of the shipbuilding industry remained on an upward trend.In terms of deadweight tonnage,global new ship orders increased by 65%year-on-year,and China’s share of global new ship orders has expanded to 75%.In the new ship orders,vessels utilizing alternative fuels account for 47%,container ships achieved a year-on-year increase of 121%(in terms of TEUs),oil tankers increased by 48.9%,bulk carriers increased by 22%,and Very Large Amonia Carriers(VLACs)increased by 79.3%.The global orderbook increased by 37.62%year-on-year,with a 2%increase for container ships,a 215%increase for oil tankers,and a 56%increase for bulk carriers.The shipbuilding industry is expected to continually grow in 2025,but with a decreased growth rate,and greening will still be the hot topics.

关 键 词：世界经济 航运市场 新造船订单 手持订单 绿色化 

分 类 号：F416.474[经济管理—产业经济]