涠洲油田群风资源变化特性研究  

Study on the Variation Characteristics of Wind Resources in Weizhou Oilfield Group

作　　者：王文杰 李志川 杨季平 WANG Wenjie;LI Zhichuan;YANG Jiping(CNOOC Energy Development Co.,Ltd.,Clean Energy Branch,Tianjin 300459,China)

机构地区：[1]中海油能源发展股份有限公司清洁能源分公司,天津300459

出　　处：《油气与新能源》2025年第1期77-85,共9页Petroleum and new energy

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“兆瓦级抗波动直接电解海水制氢关键技术研究与装备集成应用”(2023YFB4005100)。

摘　　要：随着全球能源转型的加速,风能作为清洁能源的重要组成部分,正迎来快速发展期。中国南海北部湾海域的涠洲油田群拥有丰富的风能资源,深入分析该区域风资源的变化特性,是实现油气与新能源融合发展新格局的现实需要。基于ERA5(第五代再分析数据集)及激光雷达测风数据,结合MCP(测量相关预测法)、Sen斜率估计法、Mann-Kendall显著性检验、EEMD(集合经验模态分解)及Hurst(赫斯特)指数法,对涠洲油田群130~150 m轮毂高度处风速的变化特征进行研究。研究结果表明:涠洲油田群显示出较大的风能开发潜力;夜间风速普遍高于日间;秋冬季风速明显优于春夏两季;未来风速变化具有持续性,即每年的春、夏、秋季风速将持续减弱,冬季风速则有望继续增强。研究揭示了涠洲油田群风资源条件的复杂性和动态性,为优化风电场设计、制定智能运营策略以及适应未来风资源条件波动的长期战略规划提供了科学依据。With the acceleration of global energy transition,wind energy,as an important component of clean energy,is entering a period of rapid development.Weizhou Oilfield Group in the Beibu Gulf of the South China Sea is rich in wind energy resources and deep analysis of the variation characteristics of wind resources in this region is the practical need to realize the new pattern of integrated development of oil&gas and new energy.Based on ERA5 data and lidar wind data,combined with Measurement Correlation Prediction,Sen slope estimation,Mann Kendall significance test,Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,and Hurst index method,this paper reveals the variation characteristics of wind speed at the hub height of 130-150 m in Weizhou oilfield group.The research results show that Weizhou oilfield group has great potential for wind energy development,the wind speed at night is generally higher than that in daytime,the wind speed in autumn and winter was significantly better than that in spring and summer,the wind speed change in the future will be sustainable,which means the wind speed in spring,summer,and autumn every year will continue to weaken,while the wind speed in winter is expected to continue to increase.It reveals the complexity and dynamics of wind resource conditions in Weizhou Oilfield Group and provides a scientific basis for optimizing the design of wind farms,formulating intelligent operation strategies and long-term strategic planning to adapt to the fluctuations of wind resource conditions in the future.

关 键 词：涠洲油田群 风资源 EEMD HURST指数 长期趋势预测 气候变化 

分 类 号：TK81[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] P425[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467