考虑负荷不确定性的综合能源系统双层优化调度  

Bi-level Optimal Scheduling of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Load Uncertainty

作　　者：李争 李宁 沙弘宇 孙鹤旭 LI Zheng;LI Ning;SHA Hongyu;SUN Hexu(School of Electrical Engineering,Hebei University of Science and Technology,Shijiazhuang,050018,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao,066004,China)

机构地区：[1]河北科技大学电气工程学院,石家庄050018 [2]燕山大学电气工程学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《油气与新能源》2025年第1期86-96,共11页Petroleum and new energy

基　　金：河北省重点研发计划项目“大规模可再生能源耦合制氢关键技术及应用示范”(20314501D);河北省自然科学基金项目“面向分布式发电应用的高适应性双定子开关磁阻发电机的研究”(E2021208008)。

摘　　要：综合能源系统是“双碳”背景下解决能源清洁化、低碳化发展的有效途径,但由于综合能源系统涉及风、光、电等多种能源的有效结合和利用,系统结构复杂,冗余现象严重。为考虑负荷不确定性对综合能源系统调度的影响,以及解决风、光等可再生能源大规模并网所带来的供电可靠性和弃风弃光等问题,构建了考虑负荷不确定性的电-水-热-储综合能源系统双层优化调度模型。通过条件生成对抗网络和K-means聚类算法结合进行不确定性场景抽样和削减,以甲烷加工厂最大收益和综合能源系统运行成本最小为优化目标建立模型。仿真结果表明,所提出的双层调度模型的综合成本减少了10.14%,实现了净零碳排放和100%的风光消纳率,提高了综合能源系统能源供应的稳定性、低碳性和经济性,为综合能源系统建设提供了参考。The integrated energy system is an effective approach to solving energy clean and low carbon development based on“dual carbon”goal and its system structures would be complicated as well as there is a redundancy phenomenon due to it need to effectively combining and utilizing such many energy as wind,solar,and electricity.To analyze the impact of load uncertainty on the dispatching of integrated energy systems and resolving the problems regarding power supply reliability and wind and solar curtailment brought about by the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power into the grid the paper constructs a bi-level optimal dispatching model for the Electricity-Water-Heat-Storage Integrated Energy System(EWHS-IES)that uses the Conditional Generative Adversarial Network(CGAN)and the K-means clustering algorithm,considers sampling and reduction of uncertainty scenarios,and takes the maximum profit of the methane processing plant and the minimum operating cost of the IES system as its optimization objective.The simulation results show that the comprehensive cost of the proposed bi-level dispatching model has been reduced by 10.14%,achieving zero net carbon emissions and a 100%wind and solar energy consumption rate.This bi-level model would improve the stability,low-carbon nature and economy of the energy supply of the integrated energy system and be a reference for the integrated energy systems construction.

关 键 词：不确定性 综合能源系统 抽水蓄能 条件生成对抗网络 优化调度 电解水制氢 

分 类 号：TE09[石油与天然气工程]