德州农业高质量发展与水资源利用的脱钩分析  

Decoupling Analysis between High Quality Agricultural Development and Water Resources Utilization in Dezhou City

作　　者：谢亚茹 杨光 XIE Yaru;YANG Guang(Dezhou River Management Service Center,Dezhou 253014,China;Shandong Lujian Engineering Group Co.Ltd.,Jinan 250002,China)

机构地区：[1]德州市河道管理服务中心,山东德州253014 [2]山东鲁建工程集团有限公司,山东济南250002

出　　处：《海河水利》2025年第2期8-13,共6页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：水资源高效利用是农业高质量发展的关键。利用耦合协调度模型、超效率SBM模型分别评析了德州市2011-2020年农业高质量发展的协调性、农业水资源利用效率,并运用Tapio脱钩模型计算了农业高质量发展与农业水资源利用效率的脱钩指数。结果表明:(1)德州市农业高质量发展系统耦合协调度在2011-2020年波动式上升,且2015年后耦合协调度均在0.70以上;(2)除2015年外,其余年份德州市农业水资源利用效率均大于1,整体处于有效决策生产前沿;(3)德州市农业高质量发展与农业水资源利用效率的脱钩类型在2011-2013、2016-2017、2019-2020年为弱脱钩,在2013-2015、2017-2018年为强脱钩,在2015-2016、2018-2019年为强负脱钩。因此,德州市农业高质量发展与农业水资源利用效率距协调发展尚有提升空间。Efficient utilization of water resources is the key to high-quality agricultural development.In this paper,coupling coordination degree model and super-efficiency SBM model were used to evaluate the coordination of agricultural high-quality development and agricultural water resource utilization efficiency in Dezhou during 2011-2020.And Tapio decoupling model was used to calculate the decoupling index of agricultural high-quality development and agricultural water resource utilization efficiency.The results showed that:①The coupling coordination degree of Dezhou agricultural high-quality development system increased in a fluctuating manner from 2011 to 2020,and the coupling coordination degree was above 0.70 after 2015.②Except 2015,the agricultural water resources use efficiency of Dezhou was greater than 1 in other years,which was in effective decision-making and production.③The type of decoupling between high-quality agricultural development and agricultural water resources use efficiency in Dezhou was weak decoupling in 2011-2013,2016-2017 and 2019-2020,and strong decoupling in 2013-2015 and 2017-2018.Strong negative decoupling occurred in 2015-2016 and 2018-2019.Therefore,there is still room for improvement between agricultural high-quality development and agricultural water resources utilization efficiency in Dezhou City.

关 键 词：农业高质量发展 农业水资源利用效率 脱钩分析 德州 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]