块泽河流域1959——2020年降水量趋势分析与预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Precipitation Variation Trend in the Kuaize River Basin from 1959 to 2020

作　　者：胡鑫[1] 吴捷[2] 王东升[2] 齐培衡 HU Xin;WU Jie;WANG Dongsheng;QI Peiheng(Qujing Branch of Yunnan Hydrological and Water Resources Bureau,Qujing 655000,China;Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources,Kunming 650106,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Shandong University,Ji'nan 250061,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局曲靖分局,云南曲靖655000 [2]云南省水文水资源局,云南昆明650106 [3]山东大学电气工程学院,山东济南250061

出　　处：《海河水利》2025年第2期66-72,共7页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：分析预测流域内降水量变化趋势,对水资源的合理分配和调度具有重要的指导意义。以块泽河流域1959-2020年降水量实测资料为研究对象,采用线性拟合方法、5 a滑动平均方法分析不同时段降水量、历年降水天数变化趋势,应用非参数Mann-Kendall法检验趋势变化的显著程度、Morlet小波分析多时间尺度周期变化,并结合权马尔可夫链模型及模糊集理论预测其未来10 a降水量。结果表明:(1)1959-2020年块泽河流域不同时段降水量总体呈下降趋势,且变化趋势不显著;(2)历年降水天数总体呈下降趋势,且变化趋势极其显著;(3)小波分析年降水量主要受5、12、20 a的尺度周期波动影响,2016-2020年该流域处于降水偏少期的末端,最后的震荡中心曲线未闭合,推测未来几年内降水将处于波动上升态势;(4)权马尔可夫链模型及模糊集理论预测未来10 a降水量呈波动上升趋势,预测降水量均值为1 198.3 mm,其中2030年出现最大预测值1 260.0 mm、2024年出现最小值1 102.0 mm。研究成果可为后期区域水资源管理、水生态调度、防汛抗旱等提供参考依据。The analysis and prediction of precipitation variation trend in the basin is of great significance to the rational distribution and management of water resources.Taking the measured precipitation data of the Kuaize River Basin from 1959 to 2020 as the research object,the linear fitting method and 5-year sliding average method are employed to analyze the precipitation variation trend and the precipitation days in different periods throughout the years.In addition,the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method is used to investigate the significance of the trend change,Morlet wavelet analysis is conducted to investigate multi-scale periodic changes.In the light of the weighted Markov chain model and fuzzy set theory,the precipitation in the next 10 years is predicted.It can be found that:①The precipitation of the Kuaize River Basin in different periods shows a decreasing trend during 1959-2020,and the change trend is not significant.②The number of precipitation days over the past years has been decreasing,and the changing trend is extremely significant.③Wavelet analysis shows that the annual precipitation is mainly influenced by the scale periodic fluctuations of 5,12,and 20 years.From 2016 to 2020,the basin was at the end of the period of low precipitation,and the final oscillation center curve was not closed.It is speculated that precipitation will be in a fluctuating upward trend in the coming years.④As the weighted Markov chain model and fuzzy set theory predict,the precipitation in the next 10 years will increase,the predicted average precipitation is 1198.3 mm,the maximum predicted value of 1260.0 mm will occur in 2030,and the minimum predicted value will occur in 2024.The research results can provide reference for regional water resources management,water ecological dispatching,as well as flood control and drought relief.

关 键 词：降水量 趋势分析 预测 权马尔可夫链 块泽河 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]