彰武水库年入库径流量变化及影响因素分析  

Variation of Annual Inflow and Influencing Factors in Zhangwu Reservoir

作　　者：陈新华 毕景豪 CHEN Xinhua;BI Jinghao(Flood and Drought Prevention and Security Services of Anyang Center,Anyang 455000,China;Henan Water Planning and Design Research Co.Ltd.,Anyang 455000,China)

机构地区：[1]安阳市水旱灾害防御保障中心,河南安阳455000 [2]河南省水务规划设计研究有限公司,河南安阳455000

出　　处：《海河水利》2025年第2期73-77,共5页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：为了对水库区域内水资源的可持续利用及合理调度提供科学依据,利用线性趋势分析法、滑动平均法、累积距平法、R/S分析法、双累积曲线法等方法分析了彰武水库1973-2022年入库径流量的年际变化特征、径流变化趋势、降水量变化和人类活动对入库径流量变化的影响。结果表明:(1)彰武水库年入库径流量在1973-2022年基本上呈现持续减小的趋势,且以每年约0.031亿m~3的速率减少;(2)该时间序列入库径流量的Hurst指数H=0.789 2,表明该流域入库径流量在未来一段时间里将会继续呈现减小趋势;(3)该水库年入库径流量受到人类活动的显著影响,人类活动影响率对年入库径流量的减少影响占主导地位且处于增加趋势,2006年以来人类活动对水库入库径流量减少的影响率高达94.27%。For the Sustainable use of water resources and reasonable operation of reservoir,the inflow variation characteristics and influencing factors,which include inflow inter-annual variation characteristics,changing trend,precipitation change,and the impact of human activities,were analyzed based on historical records from Zhangwu Reservoir During 1973-2022.Linear trend analysis,①Moving-average model,Cumulative anomaly method,R/S analysis,and double mass curve for annual rainfall stream flow were used comprehensively in the study.The results showed that the multi-year change of inflow of Zhangwu Reservoir had a distinctive decreased tendency at 3.1 million m3 per year during 1973-2022.②The Hurst index was 0.7892 for Zhangwu Reservoir which indicates that the decreasing trends would continue in the future.③Human activities were the main reason of inflow descending in Zhangwu Reservoir which are high to 94.27%since 2006.

关 键 词：彰武水库 年入库径流量变化 降水 人类活动 

分 类 号：TV121.1-2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]