基于SPI的贵州省干旱特性演变研究  

Drought Characteristics Evolution in Guizhou Province Based on SPI

作　　者：李长江[1] 伯彦萍 安美运 彭芸 LI Changjiang;BO Yanping;AN Meiyun;PENG Yun(Guizhou Procincial Water Conservancy Research Institute,Guiyang 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省水利科学研究院,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《海河水利》2025年第2期82-88,共7页Haihe Water Resources

基　　金：贵州省科技厅科技支撑项目(黔科合支撑[2022]一般167);贵州省水利厅科技项目(kt202319)。

摘　　要：选用贵州省65处气象站1961-2022年62 a降雨系列资料,基于标准化降水指数SPI,对贵州省干旱特性进行全面分析,揭示干旱时空分布特性及演变趋势,为干旱灾害的预报预警、防灾减灾等提供决策依据。研究结果显示,贵州省干旱发生率达91.9%,平均干旱次数19.4站次/a,以轻旱和中旱为主。干旱易发区域主要集中在黔南、黔东南的罗甸、荔波、独山、都匀、从江、榕江、丹寨、雷山、凯里、台江等区域。干旱倾向率为0.117,总体呈现逐年上升趋势。根据小波分析结果,全省干旱存在5、11、20和37 a 4种时间尺度的振荡周期,其中37 a周期振荡最强,37 a为贵州省干旱的第一主周期。This study analyzes 62 years of rainfall series data from 65 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province from 1961 to 2022.Utilizing on the standardized precipitation index(SPI),comprehensive assessment of the drought characteristics in Guizhou Province is conducted,elucidates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and evolution trends of drought,and providing decision-making basis for drought disaster forecasting,early warning,disaster prevention and reduction.The results show that the drought incidence rate in the province is 91.9%,with an average drought frequency of 19.4 station times per year.Drought conditions are mainly mild and moderate.The drought prone areas in the province are mainly concentrated in Luodian,Libo,Dushan,Duyun,Congjiang,Rongjiang,Danzhai,Leishan,Kaili,Taijiang and other regions in southern and southeastern Guizhou.The drought tendency rate in the province is 0.117,showing an overall upward trend year by year.According to the results of wavelet analysis,there are several time scales of oscillation periods for drought in the province,specifically at 5-year,11-year,20-year,and 37-year intervals.Notably,the strongest oscillation occurs in the 37a period,which is the first main period of drought in the province.

关 键 词：贵州省 干旱特性 时空分布 演变趋势 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]