风险感知视角下公共风险事件负面情绪演化建模与仿真研究  

Research on the Modeling and Simulation of Evolution of Negative Emotions in Public Risk Events from the Perspective of Risk Perception

作　　者：刘萌萌 荣莉莉[1] 郄子君 LIU Mengmeng;RONG Lili;QIE Zijun(Dalian University of Technology,Dalian,Liaoning,China;Shandong University,Qingdao,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁省大连市116024 [2]山东大学政治学与公共管理学院

出　　处：《管理学报》2025年第2期366-375,共10页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72271041,71871039)。

摘　　要：为实现公共风险事件中负面情绪的有效应对,分析个体属性-风险感知-情绪的关联机制,在剖析公共风险事件中不同情绪产生机理及其关联关系的基础上,依据社会比较理论建立情绪演化模型,并针对不同情境进行仿真模拟。仿真研究表明:在线社交网络的开放性特征在促进情绪演化的同时将减弱其地域差异;公众产生的愤怒情绪可随着全局应对风险水平的提升而降低,但其恐惧情绪也会随之升高;当恐惧情绪与地域关联水平较强时,有效的风险沟通相比单纯调整风险应对措施对引导公众负面情绪更为有效。To achieve an effective response to negative emotions in public risk events,this study analyzes the interrelationship among individual attributes,risk perception and emotions,It establishes an emotion evolution model based on social comparison theory,considering the impact of governmental responses,and examines the mechanisms underlying the generation of different emotions and their intercorrelation in public risk events,and further carries out simulations under different scenarios.Results show that the openness of online social networks promotes the evolution of emotions and at the same time reduces regional differences.When the government responds,the anger individuals feel can be reduced with an increased overall risk response level,but this can also lead to an increase in their fear.When there is a strong correlation between individuals’risk perception and their locations,risk communication is more effective at guiding negative public emotions than making simple adjustments to the official response.

关 键 词：公共事件 风险感知 情绪演化 社会比较理论 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]