“一带一路”背景下中国水产品出口东盟波动因素分析——基于CMS模型  

Analysis on fluctuation factors of China's aquatic products export to ASEAN under the background of The Belt and Road:based on the CMS Model

作　　者：康学芹 公子怡 高焓诺 KANG Xueqin;GONG Ziyi;GAOHannuo(School of Digital Commerce,Zhejiang Yuexiu University,ZhejiangShaoxing 312000,China;School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,Zhejiang Hangzhou 310023,China;HeBei University International College Hebei Baoding 071002,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江越秀外国语学院数字贸易学院,浙江绍兴312000 [2]浙江科技大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310023 [3]河北大学国际学院,河北保定071002

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2025年第1期63-70,共8页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：中国国际贸易促进委员会商业行业委员会重大课题“RCEP成员宜商环境研究报告”(CCPITRCEP-20230301);2022年浙江省级课程思政教学项目《国际贸易前沿问题专题》资助。

摘　　要：在百年未有之大变局和贸易新格局的背景下,2010年起,中国与水产品出口第四贸易伙伴东盟的水产品贸易往来日渐密切,并从2020年起上升至第一位。为精准施策巩固、发展中国水产品国际竞争力,本研究首先基于UNcomtrade2010—2022年数据对中国水产品出口东盟的波动进行经贸关系分析,进而运用CMS二阶分解效应模型对其波动驱动因素动态效应进行实证测度。结果显示,“一带一路”背景下东盟进口需求增长效应对中国水产品出口三个考察期呈持续增长正效应,但产品竞争力效应在三期中均为负。从而基于新发展格局的时代背景,提出要充分利用“一带一路”的市场效应加强国际合作,发挥中国数字应用优势,优化中国水产品结构,提升中国水产品在国际市场上的动态管理能力,巩固、提升中国水产品国际市场的核心竞争力的政策建议。.Under the great changes unseen in a century,ASEAN,the fourth trading partner of China's aquatic products export in 2010,has evolved into the first place since 2020.To take precise measures to consolidate and develop the international competitiveness of China's aquatic products,based on the data of UNcomtrade from 2010 to 2022,this study first analyzes the fluctuations of China's aquatic products export to ASEAN and the economic and trade relations.Then the CMS second-order decomposition effect model is used to measure the dynamic effect of the driving factors of fluctuation of China's aquatic products exports to ASEAN.The results show that under the background of the Belt and Road,the effect of ASEAN import demand growth on China's aquatic products exports has a positive effect of continuous growth in the three periods,but the effect of product competitiveness is negative in the three periods.Therefore,based on the background of the new development pattern,it is proposed to make full use of the market effect of The Belt and Road to strengthen international cooperation,give full play to China's digital application advantages,optimize the structure of China's aquatic products,improve the dynamic management ability of China's aquatic products in the international market,and consolidate and enhance the core competitiveness of China's aquatic products in the international market.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 东盟 水产品出口 国际竞争力 

分 类 号：F326.406[经济管理—产业经济]