FY-4A辐射产品在银川太阳能短临预报中的适用性研究  

STUDY ON APPLICABILITY OF FY-4A RADIATION PRODUCTS IN SHORT-TERM SOLOAR RADIATION FORECAST IN YINCHUAN

作　　者：严晓瑜[1,2,3] 叶冬[4] 申彦波[4] 纳丽[3] 胡玥明[4] 蒋婷 Yan Xiaoyu;Ye Dong;Shen Yanbo;Na Li;Hu Yueming;Jiang Ting(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions,CMA,Yinchuan 750002,China;Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Yinchuan 750002,China;Ningxia Meteorological Service Center,Yinchuan 750002,China;Public Meteorological Service Center of China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,银川750002 [2]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川750002 [3]宁夏气象服务中心,银川750002 [4]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2025年第2期511-521,共11页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：中国气象服务协会气象科技创新平台项目(CMSA2023MB024);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC03676);宁夏回族自治区科技创新团队(2024CXTD006)。

摘　　要：基于2022年FY-4A地表太阳入射辐射产品和同期地面气象站辐射观测资料,分析FY-4A反演辐射产品在宁夏银川的适用性,探讨其在银川太阳能资源短临预报中的应用情况,结果表明,2022年全年FY-4A整点总辐照度与银川气象站地面观测总辐照度整体变化趋势基本一致,但FY-4A辐照度整体较地面观测偏高6.5%,且其变化幅度小于地面观测;除5、6、12月份外,其他各月FY-4A整点辐照度月平均值均较地面观测高,7—11月份两者差异最大;08:00—10:00和16:00—18:00FY-4A与地面观测辐照度差异较大,11:00—15:00两者差异较小;日照时数小于9 h时,FY-4A辐照度高于地面观测,大于等于9 h时,FY-4A低于地面观测;雨、雾、雪和霾天气下FY-4A辐照度较地面观测高,大风、扬沙、浮尘时FY-4A较地面观测低;基于FY-4A辐射产品的银川太阳能短临预报,随预报时间步长增加,均方根误差呈先缓慢增加后逐渐减小变化趋势,平均相对误差呈逐渐增大变化特点,相关系数无明显波动;全年整点预报时刻来看,12:00、15:00均方根误差略低,13:00、14:00均方根误差略高,4个时刻预报与实测辐照度相关性均较好;夏季预报效果较其他季节差。Based on the surface solar irradiance(SSI)products of FY-4A and the ground observation radiation data,the paper analyzed the applicability of FY-4A SSI products in Yinchuan,Ningxia and its application in the short-term forecast of solar energy resources.The results show that the overall change trend of the irradiance of FY-4A is basically consistent with that of the ground observation at Yinchuan weather station on the hour moment in 2022.Though the irradiance of FY-4A is 6.5%higher than that of ground observation,its variation range is smaller than that of the ground observation.Except for May,June and December,the monthly average irradiance of FY-4A hourly points is higher than that of the ground observation in other months,with the largest difference between July and November.The difference between FY-4A and the ground observation during 00:00—10:00 and 16:00—18:00 is large,while in period 11:00—15:00 is small.When the sunshine hours are less than 9 h,the irradiance of FY-4A is higher than that of the ground observation,and when the sunshine hours are greater than or equal to 9 h,FY-4A is lower than the ground observation.Under the rain,fog,snow and haze weather,the irradiance of FY-4A is higher than that of the ground observation,while under wind,sand and dust condition,it is lower than that of ground observation.The short-term forecast of solar energy resources based on FY-4A radiation products has a good overall effect in Yinchuan.With the increase of the forecast time step,the root-mean-square error increases slowly at first and then decreases gradually,the average relative error increases gradually,and the correlation coefficient has no obvious fluctuation.From the whole year′s hourly forecast,the root-mean-square error at 12:00 and 15:00 is slightly lower,and the root-mean-square error at 13:00 and 14:00 is slightly higher,the correlation between forecasts and the measured irradiance is good at the four moments.The forecasting effect in summer is worse than that in the other three seasons.

关 键 词：太阳辐照度 卫星数据 地面观测 适用性 短临预报 银川 

分 类 号：P414[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]