中国迈向中等发达国家的有利发展条件与展望(2000—2035年)  

China′s Favorable Development Conditions and Prospects Towards a Moderately Developed Country(2000—2035)

作　　者：胡鞍钢[1,2,3] HU Angang(Institute for Contemporary China Studies,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of National and Global Governance,Tsinghua University,Beijing100084,China;School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学国情研究院,北京100084 [2]清华大学国家治理与全球治理研究院,北京100084 [3]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期1-14,共14页Journal of Beijing University of Technology (Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：中宣部全国哲学社会科学工作办公室国家高端智库专项(20155010298);清华大学文科“双高”专项(53120600119)。

摘　　要：中国式现代化发展的核心目标之一,即到2035年人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。分析2000—2023年世界与中国经济大变局,即中国从低收入到中低收入再到中高收入,进而迈入高收入水平。分析并预测2023—2035年中国经济增长趋势将保持中高速增长,有望在2035年国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值及劳动生产率比2020年实现三个翻一番。指出中国达到中等发达国家水平的八大中长期有利发展条件和能力:(1)保持世界较高国内储蓄率;(2)世界较高国内投资率;(3)保持国内生产总值中高速增长;(4)制造业保持中高速增长;(5)具有庞大的人力资源;(6)中等收入群体显著扩大;(7)成为世界最大国内消费市场;(8)世界最大货物出口市场。提出最关键的决定性因素始终是中国共产党为民执政、长期执政、正确领导,并总结了中国式现代化的历史意义和世界意义。One of the core goals of Chinese path to modernization development in 2035 is to achieve per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries.Upon the analysis of the major economic changes in the world and China from 2000 to 2023,especially China′s transition from low income to middle low income,then to middle high income,and finally to high-income level,the paper predicts that China′s economic growth trend will maintain a medium to high speed from 2023 to 2035,and GDP or per capita GDP and labor productivity will be doubled in amount in 2035compared to that in 2020,for China has eight medium and long-term favorable development conditions and capabilities for her to reach the level of a moderately developed country.The favorable conditions are:(1)maintain a relatively high domestic savings rate in the world;(2)have a high domestic investment rate in the world;(3)maintain a high-speed GDP growth;(4)maintain a medium to high growth rate in the manufacturing industry;(5)have a huge human resource;(6)owe a significantly expanding middle-income group;(7)remain the world′s largest domestic consumer market;(8)remain the world′s largest goods-export market.In the end,the paper points out that the most critical decisive factor is always the CPC′s long-term governance and correct leadership for the people,and summarizes the historical and global significance of Chinese path to modernization.

关 键 词：中国式现代化 中国式经济现代化 中国经济增长趋势及来源 中等发达国家 经济发展动力 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]