资本市场开放与企业预期改善  

Capital Market Openness and Enterprise Expectations Improvement

作　　者：刘洪愧 LIU Hongkui(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,100836)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,100836

出　　处：《财贸经济》2025年第2期34-51,共18页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“数字贸易开放对出口竞争力的影响:理论研究、实证检验与政策建议”(72373161);国家自然科学基金面上项目“国际生产网络视角下技术创新促进产业升级的机制和路径研究”(72173132)。

摘　　要：资本市场开放是中国扩大高水平对外开放的重要方向,有助于推动构建更加完善的资本市场,提升金融服务实体经济的能力,进而改善企业预期。本文从制度环境演变视角分析资本市场开放对企业预期的影响及理论机制,并利用公司年报文本语调衡量企业预期,借助“沪股通”开通的准自然实验进行实证检验。结果发现:第一,基准回归和稳健性检验都显示“沪股通”开通使得标的企业的年报文本语调积极程度显著提高,表明资本市场开放作为一种积极的制度环境变化有助于改善企业预期;第二,“沪股通”开通主要通过投资者关注效应、融资约束缓解效应、股权结构多元化效应、收益提升效应来改善企业预期;第三,资本市场开放对企业预期改善的影响主要体现在国有企业、大企业和市场化程度较高地区的企业,而对非国有企业、中小企业和市场化程度较低地区的企业没有显著影响。本文的启示意义在于,资本市场开放对企业预期改善具有积极作用,未来我国应进一步推进资本市场制度型开放以促进资本市场体制机制不断完善,助推企业预期改善。Expectations represent a key variable that influences both current and future economic development. Capital market openness is a key direction of China's high-level openness, contributing to the development of a more complete capital market and thus improving enterprise expectations. This paper studies whether China's capital market opening can effectively improve enterprise expectations. We analyze the overall impact of capital market opening on enterprise expectations and the potential theoretical mechanisms from the perspective of institutional environment evolution. We also take the tone of annual reports from Chinese listed companies as an indicator of enterprise expectations, and empirically tests the impact of capital market opening on enterprise expectations by using a quasi-natural experiment based on the launch of the “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect” and a sample of Chinese listed companies.The findings are as follows: First, Capital market opening helps boost enterprise expectations. Both baseline regression results and robustness tests confirm that it significantly increased the positive tone of listed companies' annual reports, thereby improving enterprise expectations. Second, capital market opening helps target companies gain more investor attention, alleviate financing constraints, and optimize their ownership structure, bringing about improved corporate earnings and ultimately improving enterprise expectations. Third, capital market opening has a significant positive impact on the expectations of stateowned enterprises, large enterprises, and companies in regions with a relatively high degree of marketization, but has no significant effect on non-state-owned enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises, and companies in less marketized regions.The potential contributions of this paper are:(1) It expands the study of factors influencing enterprise expectations from the perspective of capital market openness, extending research on the formation and influencing factors of micro-level enterp

关 键 词：资本市场开放 企业预期 沪股通 文本语调 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]