2019—2022年济南市流行性腮腺炎流行病学特征及发病趋势预测  

Prediction of epidemiologic features and incidence trend of epidemic parotitis in Jinan City from 2019 to 2022

作　　者：谭丽 许春华 武丛聪 赵建云[1] 徐颖 李春燕[1] 王琼 TAN Li;XU Chunhua;WU Congcong;ZHAO Jianyun;XU Ying;LI Chunyan;WANG Qiong(Institute of Immune Prevention,Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan,Shandong 250021,China)

机构地区：[1]济南市疾病预防控制中心免疫预防所,山东济南250021

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2025年第3期272-276,共5页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：山东省学校卫生协会2023年度科研课题——学校传染病突发公共卫生事件的发生规律及防控策略研究(SDWS2023029)。

摘　　要：目的探讨2019—2022年济南市流行性腮腺炎(简称“流腮”)流行病学分布特征及发病趋势的预测,为下一步做好流腮防控提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2019—2022年济南市的流腮报告病例,运用描述性流行病学方法分析济南市流腮的发病时间、空间以及人群分布特点。应用灰色预测模型(gray forecast model,GM)(1,1)预测济南市2023—2024年流腮发病趋势。结果济南市2019—2022年流腮年均报告发病率为8.16/10万,发病率呈逐年下降趋势。发病人群以15岁以下人群为主,占发病总数的83.83%,发病年龄主要集中在4~<7岁,共1134例,占发病总数的38.45%。职业以托幼机构儿童和学生为主,占发病总数的76.26%。济南市13个县区均有流腮病例报告,报告发病率最高的是平阴县(18.08/10万)。发病高峰为9—11月,占发病总数的32.11%。GM(1,1)拟合精度很好(C=0.25,P>0.95),预测值与实际值平均相对误差为1.30%,可用于外推,预测2023—2024年济南市流腮发病率将进一步下降。结论2019—2022年济南市流腮发病总体呈下降趋势,发病以托幼机构儿童和学生为主,发病时间分布与学生在校时间相吻合,建议学校和托幼机构进一步加强托幼机构儿童和学生的流腮防控工作。Objective To explore the epidemiologic distribution features and predict the incidence trend of epidemic parotitis(referred to as"mumps")in Jinan City from 2019 to 2022,so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of mumps in future.Methods The reported cases of mumps in Jinan from 2019 to 2022 were collected by the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the incidence time,space and population distribution of mumps.The gray forecast model(GM)(1,1)was used to predict the incidence trend of mumps in Jinan City from 2023 to 2024.Results The average annual reported incidence rate of mumps in Jinan from 2019 to 2022 was 8.16/100000,and the incidence rate showed a decreasing trend year by year.The incidence of the disease was mainly in people were under 15 years old,accounting for 83.83%of the total number of cases,and mainly concentrated in the age of 4-<7 years,with a total of 1134 cases,accounting for 38.45%of the total number of cases.The occupations were mainly children of childcare settings and students,accounting for 76.26%of the total number of cases.Cases of mumps were reported in all 13 counties and districts of Jinan City,and the highest reported incidence rate was in Pingyin County(18.08/100000).The peak of cases was from September to November,accounting for 32.11%of the total number of cases.GM(1,1)had a good fitting accuracy(C=0.25,P>0.95),and the average relative error between the predicted value and the actual value was 1.30%.The model could be used for extrapolation,and it was predicted that the incidence rate of mumps in Jinan City will further decline from 2023 to 2024.Conclusion From 2019 to 2022,the incidence of mumps in Jinan City shows an overall decreasing trend,and the incidence is mainly in children of childcare settings and students.The distribution of the incidence time is consistent with the school time of students.It is suggested that schools and childcare settings should further strengthen the prev

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 流行病学特征 含流腮成分疫苗 GM(1 1) 发病趋势 预测 

分 类 号：R512.1[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]