Assessing the vulnerability of wintering habitats for the red-listed Asian Houbara(Chlamydotis macqueenii)using climate models and human impact assessments  

作　　者：Gulzaman William Zafeer Saqib Abdul Qadir Nisha Naeem Mehrban Ali Brohi Asim Kamran Afia Rafique 

机构地区：[1]Department of Biological Sciences,University of Sialkot,Sialkot,Pakistan [2]GIS and Eco-Informatics Laboratory,Department of Environmental Science,International Islamic University,Islamabad,Pakistan [3]College of Earth and Environmental Science,University of the Punjab,Lahore,Pakistan [4]Department of Zoology,University of Sialkot,Sialkot,Pakistan [5]Zoological Survey of Pakistan,Islamabad,Pakistan [6]Punjab Wildlife and Parks Department,Lahore,Pakistan

出　　处：《Avian Research》2025年第1期53-62,共10页鸟类学研究(英文版)

基　　金：the support of the Zoological Survey of Pakistan,and the Wildlife and Parks Department of Punjab for their assistance in this research。

摘　　要：The Asian Houbara(Chlamydotis macqueenii),a vulnerable species,is under significant threat from habitat degradation and anthropogenic pressures in Pakistan's arid landscapes.This study addresses the urgent need for conservation by identifying critical habitats,analyzing the influence of environmental and human factors on species distribution,and projecting future habitat shifts under climate change scenarios.Using the Max Ent model,which achieves a robust predictive accuracy(AUC=0.854),we mapped current and future habitat suitability under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP126,SSP370,SSP585)for the years 2040 and 2070.Presently,the suitable habitat extends over 217,082 km^(2),with 52,751 km^(2) classified as highly suitable.Key environmental drivers,identified via the Jackknife test,revealed that annual mean temperature(Bio1)and slope play a dominant role in determining habitat suitability.Projections show significant habitat degradation;however,under SSP585,highly suitable areas are expected to expand by up to 24.92%by 2070.Despite this increase,vast areas remain unsuitable,posing serious risks to population sustainability.Moreover,only 2115 km^(2) of highly suitable habitat currently falls within protected zones,highlighting a critical conservation shortfall.These findings highlight the imperative for immediate,targeted conservation efforts to secure the species'future in Pakistan's desert ecosystems.

关 键 词：MAXENT Climate change Asian Houbara HABITAT Conservation 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学]