果桑产业发展态势及发展策略研究——基于对夏津县桑产业的SWOT-PEST分析  

Research on the development trends and strategies of fruit mulberry industry——based on SWOT-PEST analysis of the mulberry industry in Xiajin County

作　　者：尹训刚 周振亚[1] 刘得汉 李佳颖 Yin Xungang;Zhou Zhenya;Liu Dehan;Li Jiaying(State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,CAAS,Beijing 100081;Xiajin County Big Data Center)

机构地区：[1]北方干旱半干旱耕地高效利用全国重点实验室,中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [2]夏津县大数据中心

出　　处：《中国果树》2025年第2期123-134,共12页China Fruits

基　　金：农业农村部特色农产品优势区评估与农产品产销对接分析项目(11210016)。

摘　　要：果桑产业是赋能乡村振兴、助力农民增收的新兴特色产业,夏津县是我国果桑产业的优势区域和典型代表,研究夏津县果桑产业的发展态势和发展路径,对全国果桑产业的发展具有重要的示范作用和借鉴意义。在实地调研和查阅文献的基础上,采用SWOT-PEST模型,从政治、经济、社会、技术4个维度对夏津县果桑产业的自身优势、劣势及面临的机遇和威胁进行全面分析。研究发现,夏津县果桑产业具备当地政府重视、产业链条初步完善、历史文化深厚、技术支撑良好及政策大力支持、开发潜力巨大、社会价值多元、高新科技应用等优势和机遇,但同时也面临政策合力不足、产品结构单一、比较优势下降、核心科技缺乏及土地约束严重、市场竞争激烈、产品认可度低、技术装备相对落后等不足和挑战。在此基础上,提出加快增长、扭转被动、多元经营、防御风险等发展策略,以期为夏津县乃至全国果桑产业的持续发展提供有益参考。The fruit mulberry industry is an emerging characteristic industry that empowers rural revitalization and helps farmers increase income.Xiajin County is an advantageous region and typical representative of China’s fruit mulberry industry.Studying the development trend and path of Xiajin County’s fruit mulberry industry has important exemplary and reference significance for the development of the national fruit mulberry industry.Based on field research and literature review,this study adopts the SWOT-PEST model to comprehensively analyze the advantages,disadvantages,opportunities,and threats faced by the fruit mulberry industry in Xiajin County from four dimensions:politics,economy,society,and technology.Research has found that the fruit mulberry industry in Xiajin County has the advantages and opportunities of local government attention,preliminary improvement of the industrial chain,deep historical and cultural heritage,good technical support and strong policy support,huge development potential,diverse social value,and high-tech application.However,it also faces shortcomings and challenges such as insufficient policy synergy,single product structure,declining comparative advantages,lack of core technology and severe land constraints,fierce market competition,low product recognition,and relatively backward technical equipment.On this basis,development strategies are proposed,including accelerating growth,reversing passivity,diversifying operations,and defending risks,in order to provide useful references for the sustainable development of the fruit mulberry industry in Xiajin County and even the whole country.

关 键 词：果桑产业 发展态势 发展策略 夏津 SWOT-PEST分析 

分 类 号：S663.9[农业科学—果树学]