面向重大突发公共卫生事件随机需求的疫苗预置-跨区协作接种策略  

Vaccine Pre-positioning and Cross-Regional Collaborative Vaccination Strategy for Random Demand in Major Public Health Emergencies

作　　者：陈达强[1] CHEN Daqiang(Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《物流技术》2025年第2期49-60,共12页Logistics Technology

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY21G030007);国家自然科学基金项目(71874158);浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(21NDJC075YB)。

摘　　要：疫苗接种能够有效增强应对重大突发公共卫生事件的能力。鉴于接种点疫苗预置量与接种需求存在不一致,以及转运对疫苗活性的影响,对疫苗预置-跨区协作接种问题进行深入研究具有重要价值。为控制疫苗过量预置与人群调配风险,提出了基于二层规划的疫苗预置-人群调配联合优化决策模型。首先,以泊松分布表征随机接种需求,基于疫苗预置与人群调配的数量关系,提出了疫苗预置成本、过量预置损失及接种人群调配成本等决策目标。其次,考虑二级疫苗配发接种系统的层级结构及其决策的主从特性,构建了联合优化决策模型,并设计了算法进行求解。最后,通过算例验证了模型的合理性和有效性。研究发现:由于上下层决策目标间的冲突,难以同时实现各目标最优化,但存在Pareto有效解;高水平的储备点供给能力可满足更多接种点的随机需求,进而降低人群调配规模,但易导致较高的疫苗总预置成本;人群调配、接种点疫苗预置与过量预置等成本显著影响调配人群规模。Vaccination can effectively enhance the ability to respond to major public health emergencies.Given the inconsistency between pre-positioned vaccine quantities at vaccination sites and the actual vaccination demand,as well as the potential impact of transporting and stocking on vaccine efficacy,it is of significant value to carry out in-depth research on vaccine pre-positioning and cross-regional collaboration.To control the risks associated with vaccine overstocking and population reallocation,a decision model for their joint optimization is proposed based on bi-level programming.Firstly,the uncertain vaccination demand is characterized by poison distribution,and deci-sion objectives such as vaccine pre-positioning costs,overstocking losses,and population reallocation costs are for-mulated based on the quantitative relationships between pre-positioned vaccine and reallocated population.Second-ly,considering the hierarchical structure and the leader-follower decision-making characteristics of a two-tier vacci-nation distribution system,a joint optimization decision model is constructed And an algorithm is designed to solve the model.Finally,the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model are validated by numerical experiments.The findings indicate that due to the conflicting objectives between the upper and lower levels of the bi-level model,it is challenging to simultaneously optimize all objectives,while Pareto-effective solutions exist;moreover,higher supply capacities of the system can meet the uncertain demands of more vaccination sites,thereby reducing the scale of population reallocation,but may lead to higher overall vaccine pre-positioning costs;and the costs associat-ed with population reallocation,vaccine pre-positioning,and overstocking significantly impact the scale of popula-tion reallocation.

关 键 词：疫苗预置 跨区协作 人群调配 随机需求 重大突发公共卫生事件 

分 类 号：F253.4[经济管理—国民经济] R186[医药卫生—流行病学]