石油石化企业供应链库存预测模型的开发与应用  

Development and Application of a Supply Chain Inventory ForecastingModel for Petroleum and Petrochemical Enterprises

作　　者：邱天 高鹏 曹斌 Qiu Tian;Gao Peng;Cao Bin(CNOOC Energy Techology&Services Limited,Beijing 100027)

机构地区：[1]中海油能源发展股份有限公司,北京100027

出　　处：《石油化工技术与经济》2025年第1期11-14,共4页Technology & Economics in Petrochemicals

摘　　要：文章构建了一个基于物资数据的库存积压或缺货预警系统。以石油石化管道设备配件和专用工具作为样本数据进行分析,计算出物资的需求量、重订货量、重订货点和安全库存,并由此搭建了库存物资的需求预测模型,有效解决了传统库存管理中的经验主义和事后管控问题。研究分析表明,该预警系统能够以86.7%的准确率预测物资的积压或缺货情况,为库存资源的合理配置提供决策支持。文章不仅为石油石化企业库存管理提供了新的视角和工具,也为物资数据在供应链领域的应用提供了案例指导。This study constructs a stockpile or stockout warning system based on material data.By analyzing sample data of petroleum and petrochemical pipeline equipment accessories and petroleum-specific tools,the study calculates the demand,reorder quantity,reorder point,and safety stock of materials to build a demand forecasting model for inventory materials,effectively addressing the issues of empiricism and post-event control in traditional inventory management.The research analysis indicates that the warning system can predict material stockpiling or stockouts with an accuracy rate of 86.7%,providing decision support for the rational allocation of inventory resources.This study not only provides a new perspective and tool for inventory management in the petroleum and petrochemical industry but also offers case guidance for the application of material data in the supply chain field.

关 键 词：物资数据 库存管理 预警系统 需求预测 供应链优化 

分 类 号：TP29[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]