后真相时代欧洲民众阴谋论信念的心理起源与政治后果——基于欧洲20国调查数据的实证研究  

The Psychological Origins and Political Consequences of Popular Conspiracy Theories in Post-Truth Europe:Analyzing Survey Data from 20 European Countries

作　　者：陆铭 陆屹洲 LU Ming;LU Yi-zhou

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院,北京100872 [2]中国社会科学院中国社会科学评价研究院,北京100005

出　　处：《新闻大学》2024年第12期68-85,120,共19页Journalism Research

基　　金：2024年度国家社会科学基金青年项目“知识分子引导公共舆论的比较政治心理分析”(24CZZ0018)。

摘　　要：在后真相时代,阴谋论的心理起源及其对政治社会现实的影响愈发受到公众关注,但尚未被国内学界系统研究。本文基于欧洲社会调查数据对欧洲20国民众的阴谋论信念及相关政治态度进行了系统的测量与描述,并应用线性混合模型和多层次路径分析模型进行了宏观与微观的统计检验,证实了从心理起源(存在动机、社会动机)到阴谋论信念再到政治后果(欧洲一体化、气候变化、移民问题)的完整机制。此外,对民众的阴谋论信念,互联网使用技能呈现显著负向效应,新闻信息消费时长及互联网使用频率也呈现出有条件的重要影响。In the post-truth era,the psychological origin of conspiracy theories and their impact on political and social reality have attracted more and more public attention,but they have not been systematically studied by domestic academy.Based on the data of the European Social Survey,this paper systematically measures and describes the conspiracy beliefs and related political attitudes of people in 20 European countries,and uses the linear mixed model and the multi-level path analysis model to conduct macro and micro statistical tests.The complete causal relationship and mechanism from psychological roots(existential motives,social motives)to conspiratorial beliefs to political consequences(issues of European integration,climate change and migration)is confirmed.Additionally,in explaining the public's conspiracy theory beliefs,the Internet use skills show a significant negative effect,and the time spent on news consumption and the frequency of Internet use also show conditionally important effects.

关 键 词：虚假信息 信息接触 阴谋论 政治态度 

分 类 号：G209[文化科学—传播学]