人口老龄化与收入差距关系研究——兼论政府的缓解效应分析  

Research on the Relationship between Population Aging and Income Gap——Analysis of the government's mitigation effect

作　　者：田广辉 万芷墨 万相昱 TIAN Guanghui;WAN Zhimo;WAN Xiangyu

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所 [2]北京大学光华管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2024年第11期59-66,共8页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“宏观大数据建模和预测研究”(71991475);中国社科院新疆智库重大课题“新疆自贸试验区内外贸一体化建设的突出挑战和对策建议”(XJZK2025ZD007);中国社科院智库基础研究项目“当前新疆外资外贸企业特殊困难及系统应对策略”(ZKJC241001);中国社会科学院大学人文社科类重大项目培育专项“公共政策的分配效应归宿分析与集成化微观模拟模型的研制”(02011903822004)以及“中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室”(2024SYZH004)。

摘　　要：推动实现全体人民共同富裕和积极应对人口老龄化是当前和今后中国要着力解决的重要问题。本文基于CFPS2012-2022年数据,实证分析了人口老龄化对收入差距的影响效应,并基于收入和支出两方面探究其作用机制。研究发现,人口老龄化对收入差距具有显著的不利影响,其作用渠道是人力资本积累效应和劳动力供给效应。分项回归表明,人口老龄化更易加剧具有劳动属性特征的工资性和经营性收入差距,但对转移性收入差距具有显著的改善作用,体现了政府转移支付对收入差距的缓解效应。异质性结果表明,城镇、高人力资本群体人口老龄化对收入降低的影响不显著,农村、低禀赋家庭的收入水平受到的负向影响更大。拓展性分析表明,由国家推动并实施的社会保障可以有效地缓解人口老龄化对收入差距的不利影响。基于此,国家应加大财政转移对低收入家庭的支持力度、进一步发挥养老保险和医疗保险对养老压力的缓解作用、积极推动银发经济发展。Promoting common prosperity for all people and actively addressing population aging are important ssues that China needs to focus on addressing both currently and in the future.This article empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on income inequality based on CFPS2012-2022 data,and explores its mechanism from both income and expenditure perspectives.Research has found that population aging has a significant adverse impact on income inequality,which is mediated through the effects of human capital accumulation and labor supply.Partial regression analysis shows that population aging is more likely to exacerbate wage and business income gaps with labor attributes,but it has a significant improvement effect on transfer income gaps,reflecting the alleviating effect of government transfer payments on income gaps.The heterogeneity results indicate that the aging population in urban areas and high human capital groups has no significant impact on income reduction,while the negative impact on the income level of rural and low endowment families is greater.Expansion analysis shows that social security promoted and implemented by the state can effectively alleviate the adverse effects of population aging on in-come inequality.Based on this,the country should increase fiscal transfer support for low-income families,further leverage the relief effect of pension insurance and medical insurance on pension pressure,and actively promote the development of the silver economy.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 收入差距 养老压力 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]