气候变化对冰冻圈水文影响研究综述  

A review of the impacts of climate change on cryospheric hydrological processes

作　　者：丁永建 张世强 陈仁升[7,4] 秦甲 赵求东 刘俊峰 阳勇 何晓波 苌亚平 上官冬辉 韩添丁 吴锦奎 李向应 DING Yong-Jian;ZHANG Shi-Qiang;CHEN Ren-Sheng;QIN Jia;ZHAO Qiu-Dong;LIU Jun-Feng;YANG Yong;HE Xiao-Bo;CHANG Ya-Ping;SHANGGUAN Dong-Hui;HAN Tian-Ding;WU Jin-Kui;LI Xiang-Ying(National Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest China Ecological Environment and Resource Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;China Pakistan Earth Science Research Center,Islamabad 45320,Pakistan;Xizang Autonomous Region Tanggula Mountain Cryosphere and Environment Field Scientific Observation and Research Station,Northwest China Ecological Environment and Resource Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy Sciences,Beijing 100044,China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Northwest University,Xi’an 710027,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi’an 710027,China;National Key Laboratory of Ecological Security and Sustainable Development in Arid Regions,Northwest China Ecological Environment and Resource Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学与冻土工程全国重点实验室,兰州730000 [2]中国-巴基斯坦地球科学研究中心,巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡45320 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院唐古拉山冰冻圈与环境西藏自治区野外科学观测研究站,兰州730000 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100044 [5]西北大学陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,西安710027 [6]西北大学城市与环境学院,西安710027 [7]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2025年第1期1-21,共21页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42330512,42171028);甘肃省科技重大专项计划(22ZD6FA005)。

摘　　要：冰冻圈水文过程对气候变化的响应及其影响已成为全球变化研究的热点问题之一。从全球尺度看,冰川的物质损失量(即冰川冰的融水量)2000—2019年整体表现为(48±16)~(57.6±13)Gt/(10 a)的加速趋势,但不同区域差异较大。从流域尺度看,不同流域冰川融水对气候变化的响应程度各异,主要取决于不同流域冰川规模大小及不同规模冰川的组成特征。尽管对全球不同冰川区的冰川融水未来变化趋势,尤其拐点出现时间的认识仍有所差异,但对于冰川融水空间变化整体格局存在共识,即未来全球冰川融水的变化趋势受控于冰盖及高纬度大型冰川的变化速率。全球变暖导致融雪期间径流年内分配出现明显变化,表现为流域融雪期明显提前,提前的日数主要集中在20 d以内,其次是消融早期的融雪径流明显增加,峰值流量到达时间提前。预估未来雨雪比增加将导致积雪储量减少,同时增加升华量,进一步强化融雪径流的提前时间,导致流域融雪径流贡献减少。气候变化通过多种方式影响多年冻土水文过程,表现在下垫面水文效应、活动层径流调蓄作用和多年冻土层上水变化三方面。在下垫面水文效应方面,地表冻融作用的加强、热融喀斯特的扩张和活动层加深,直接影响地表产汇流过程和能力,进而影响地表径流的年内分配;在活动层径流调蓄方面,活动层变化不仅影响地表径流过程,也影响活动层内垂直和水平方向的壤中流,更影响多年冻土层上水的补给和径流能力,更重要的是活动层的冻融及深度变化,对上述水文过程起到年内到长期的水文调节作用;在多年冻土层上水变化方面,通过各种方法获得的结果可以得出这样的认识,即多年冻土退化已经或多或少对地下径流产生了影响,这种影响的突出表现是多年冻土退化对河流的直接补给作用,且补给的数量似不可忽视,有些流域甚�The response of cryospheric hydrological processes to climate change,and its impacts has become a key issue in global change research.On a global scale,the mass loss of glaciers(i.e.,the amount of meltwater from glaciers)has shown an accelerating trend over the past 20 years,ranging from(48±16)to(57.6±13)Gt/(10 a),while significant regional differences exist.At the watershed scale,the response of glacier meltwater to climate change varies among different watersheds,primarily depending on the size of the glaciers within each watershed and the compositional characteristics of glaciers of varying sizes.Although there are still differences in understanding the future trends of glacier meltwater across various glacier regions,particularly regarding the timing of critical inflection points,there is a consensus on the overall pattern of spatial changes in glacier meltwater.The future trend in global glacier meltwater is expected to be controlled by the rate of change in ice sheets and large glaciers at high latitudes.Global warming has led to significant changes in the intra-annual distribution of runoff during the snowmelt period,with a notable advance in the timing of snowmelt in most watersheds by up to 20 days.Additionally,early snowmelt runoff has significantly increased,with peak flow occurring earlier.It is projected that an increase in the rain-to-snow ratio in the future will lead to a reduction in snowpack storage,while simultaneously increasing sublimation,further advancing the timing of snowmelt runoff and reducing its contribution to watershed runoff.Climate change affects permafrost hydrological processes in several ways,including changes in the hydrological effects of the underlying surface,the runoff regulation function of the active layer,and variations in the supra-permafrost water.In terms of the hydrological effects of the underlying surface,enhanced freeze-thaw cycles,the expansion of thermokarst,and the deepening of the active layer directly impact surface runoff generation and flow processes,the

关 键 词：气候变化 冰冻圈水文 冰川 积雪 冻土 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学] P467[天文地球—地球物理学]