全球气候变暖加剧背景下中国高影响区域性极端事件及归因研究进展  

High-impact regional extreme events in China under intensified global warming and attribution research progress

作　　者：袁宇锋 廖圳 周佰铨 翟盘茂[1] YUAN Yu-Feng;LIAO Zhen;ZHOU Bai-Quan;ZHAI Pan-Mao(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2025年第1期44-55,共12页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(42105163);中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金(2024KJ036)。

摘　　要：本文系统回顾了2010—2023年全球气候变暖加剧背景下中国区域发生的重大极端天气气候事件,在重点分析这些事件特征及社会经济影响的基础上,进一步梳理总结了这些事件最新的归因研究进展。2010年以来的国内十大天气气候事件中占比最高的是极端降水与洪涝事件和台风,分别为27%和15%;其次为极端高温、干旱、低温雨雪相关的冷事件以及雾霾沙尘相关的污染事件,占比均在11%~12%之间;最后相对较少的是强对流天气和其他类型气象事件,占比分别是7%和6%。随着全球气候变暖加剧,中国地区的极端高温、极端降水和干旱等事件的频率和强度显著增加。极端事件趋势归因关注气候变化对极端事件长期趋势的影响。极端高温和干旱事件的增加主要归因于人为强迫,而极端降水、干旱、野火等极端事件也与人类活动引起的增暖联系紧密。人类活动,尤其是温室气体排放,是推动我国极端事件长期变化的主要驱动因素。单个(单类)事件归因关注极端事件自身发生概率和强度的变化。基于环流相似法、大气模式方法和“故事线”等归因方法的研究表明,人类活动显著增加了极端高温、干旱野火事件以及复合干旱事件的强度和发生频率,一定程度上减弱了低温事件发生概率和强度;对降水事件的影响程度因事件类型存在一定差异,但多数研究结果倾向于人类活动加剧了极端降水事件的风险。尽管近年来极端事件归因研究取得了重要进展,但对例如强台风、强对流天气以及其他类型复合事件等极端事件的归因研究尚有不足。此外,极端事件归因研究还面临观测资料不足、气候模式发展滞后等挑战。建立实时检测归因系统将对防灾减灾政策的制定和实施提供科学指导,具有重要意义。This paper systematically reviews major extreme weather and climate events in China’s regions under the intensified global warming background from 2010 to 2023.It focuses on analyzing the characteristics and socio-economic impacts of these events and further summarizes the latest progress in attribution research on these occurrences.Among the annual top ten significant weather and climate events in China from 2010 to 2023,extreme precipitation and flood events,along with typhoons,accounted for the highest proportion at 27% and 15%,respectively.Extreme heat,drought,cold-related low-temperature and snowfall events,as well as pollution events associated with haze and dust,each accounted for 11%-12%,while severe convective weather and other meteorological events accounted for 7%and 6%,respectively.With the intensification of global warming,the frequency and intensity of extreme heat,extreme precipitation,and drought events in China have significantly increased.Trend attribution of extreme events focuses on the impact of climate change on their long-term trends.The increase in extreme heat and drought events is mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing,while extreme precipitation,drought,wildfires,and other extreme events are also closely linked to human-induced warming.Human activities,particularly greenhouse gas emissions,are the primary drivers of the long-term changes in extreme events in China.Event attribution research focuses on changes in the probability and intensity of extreme events themselves.Studies based on circulation analog methods,atmospheric models,and storyline approaches indicate that human activities have significantly increased the intensity and frequency of extreme heat,drought,wildfire events,and compound hot-dry events,while slightly reducing the probability and intensity of cold events.The impact on precipitation events varies by event type,but most studies suggest that human activities have heightened the risk of extreme precipitation events.Despite significant progress in the attribution

关 键 词：全球变暖 极端事件 归因研究 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]