2020年前全球减缓目标履约进展评估分析  

Progress assessment and analysis on the implementation of pre-2020 global mitigation targets

作　　者：樊星 丁鸿达 梁媚聪 许玲懿 高翔 FAN Xing;DING Hong-Da;LIANG Mei-Cong;XU Ling-Yi;GAO Xiang(National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation(NCSC),Beijing 100035,China)

机构地区：[1]国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京100035

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2025年第1期125-134,共10页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(21AZD123)。

摘　　要：《联合国气候变化框架公约》第28次缔约方会议(COP28)完成了《巴黎协定》下的首次全球盘点,其中,对于2020年前全球气候行动整体进展的评估是此次全球盘点不可或缺的组成要素。是否兑现2020年前气候承诺是推动《巴黎协定》持续有效实施和开展2020年后气候行动的基础。但是,当前全球整体气候行动距离《巴黎协定》温控目标仍有较大差距,其中,发达国家未能有力履行“坎昆协议”下的2020年前减排承诺,发展中国家提出适当减缓行动目标但履约进展普遍难以评估。此外,发达国家的2020年前减排目标履约过程中还出现减排目标缺乏力度、提出目标时已经实现了部分减排目标、主要依靠疫情的排放下降和经济转型国家的减排贡献、未能履行出资减排承诺等问题,并对发展中国家获取低碳技术支持等方面制造技术封锁以及信息获取障碍。中国通过大力发展可再生能源并持续推动能源结构优化,超额完成了2020年气候目标,并在2020年取得了脱贫攻坚的胜利,为全球绿色低碳转型做出重要贡献。建议各方注重切实行动而非空喊口号,特别是发达国家应带头强化行动,尽快填补2020年前行动差距,强化对发展中国家资金、技术以及能力建设支持,以保障发展中国家依据国情为全球气候治理做出贡献。The 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP28)completed the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement.The assessment of the overall progress of pre-2020 global climate action is an indispensable component of this Global Stocktake.Whether to fulfill the pre-2020 climate commitments is the foundation for promoting the sustained and effective implementation of the Paris Agreement and carrying out post-2020 climate action.However,there is still a significant gap between the current global climate action and the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.Developed countries have not effectively fulfilled their pre-2020 emission reduction commitments under the Cancun Agreement,and developing countries have proposed Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions(NAMAs),but it is difficult to assess the general progress in fulfilling these NAMAs.In addition,when developed countries were implementing their pre-2020 mitigation actions,there were some problems,including their mitigation targets were less ambitious,some conturies already achieved part of the mitigation targets when they released the targets,their emission reduction mainly relied on the COVID-19 and the mitigation contribution by economies in transition(EIT)countries,and they failed to fulfill their commitments on financial support and emission reduction.Developing countries face technological barriers and information access barriers in obtaining low-carbon technology support from developed countries.With vigorously developing renewable energy and continuously promoting energy structure optimization,China has exceeded its 2020 climate target and achieved victory in Poverty Eradication in 2020,making great contributions to the global green and low-carbon transition.It is Recommended that all parties focus on concrete actions rather than empty slogans.In particular,developed countries should take the lead in strengthening actions and fill in the pre-2020 implementation gaps,and strengthening the financial,te

关 键 词：《巴黎协定》 2020年前行动 减缓目标 落实 全球气候治理 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]