农民非农收入、农业技术进步对粮食供给安全的影响研究  

Study on the Impact of Farmers’Non-agricultural Income and Agricultural Technological Progress on Food Supply Security

作　　者：董丽晶 李英杰 孙振亚 DONG Li-jing;LI Ying-jie;SUN Zhen-ya(Liaoning University,School of Public Administration,Liaoning Shenyang 110031,China;Liaoning University,School of International Economics and Politics,Liaoning Shenyang 110031,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学公共管理学院,辽宁沈阳110031 [2]辽宁大学国际经济政治学院,辽宁沈阳110031

出　　处：《科学管理研究》2025年第1期99-109,共11页Scientific Management Research

基　　金：辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题(编号:2023lslybkt-064)。

摘　　要：基于2003-2022年中国省级面板数据,运用双向固定效应、调节效应和门槛回归模型实证检验了农民非农收入、农业技术进步与粮食供给安全的内在关系。研究结果显示:①农民非农收入与粮食供给安全呈现先促进后抑制的倒U型关系,农业技术进步显著促进粮食供给安全,机制分析验证了农业技术进步在农民非农收入与粮食供给安全之间存在调节效应;②异质性分析发现,非农收入在粮食主产区和高经济发展水平地区最早出现倒U型拐点,且对非粮主产区和高经济发展水平地区影响更大,技术进步的促进作用在粮食主产区和低经济发展水平地区更为显著;③门槛检验得出,农业技术进步与粮食供给安全存在非线性单一门槛特征,当非农收入跨过门槛值6.370时,农业技术进步的促进作用由弱变强。因此,提出促进非农收入增长的同时多举措提高农民种粮积极性、加大粮食生产科技研发投入、注重农业技术投入的区域化差异等政策建议,以不断提升我国粮食供给安全水平。Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2003 to 2022,the article empirically examines the intrinsic re⁃lationship among farmers’non-agricultural income,agricultural technological progress and food supply security by using two-way fixed effects,moderating effects and threshold regression model.The results of the study show that:①farmers’non-agricultural income and food supply security show an inverted U-shaped relationship of promoting and then inhibiting,and agricultural technological progress significantly promotes food supply security,and the mechanism analysis verifies that there is a moderating effect of agricultural technological progress in the relationship between farmers’non-agricultural in⁃come and food supply security.②Heterogeneity analysis found that the earliest inverted U-shaped inflection point of nonagricultural income in the main food-producing areas and high economic development level areas and in the non-food-pro⁃ducing areas and high economic development level areas have the strongest intensity of the impact of technological progress in the main food-producing areas and the low level of economic development in the area of the promotion of a more signifi⁃cant role.③Threshold test,agricultural technological progress and food supply security,there is a non-linear single threshold characteristics,when the non-agricultural income across the threshold value of 6.370,the promotion of agricultural technological progress from weak to strong.Therefore,it is proposed to promote the growth of non-agricultural income and at the same time take multiple initiatives to maintain farmers’incentives to grow food,increase the investment in agricultural science and technology research and development,and focus on the regionalization of the differences in agricultural technolo⁃gy inputs,and other policy recommendations,in order to continuously improve China’s food supply security level.

关 键 词：农民非农收入 农业技术进步 粮食供给安全 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]