全国统筹能否“均贫富”:养老保险基金省际调剂的精算分析  

Can the National Pooling Balance the Gap:An Actuarial Analysis of Inter-provincial Adjustment of Pension Insurance Fund

作　　者：杨红燕[1,2] 邓智宇 叶菁 YANG Hongyan;DENG Zhiyu;YE Jing(Center for Social Security Studies of Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072,China;School of Political Science and Public Administration,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学政治与公共管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2025年第1期31-41,共11页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自科基金面上项目(72274145);教育部规划基金项目(22YJA630101);教育部人文社科重点研究基地自设项目(24JDZS01)。

摘　　要：2022年我国开始实施城镇职工养老保险全国统筹政策,以统筹调剂方案取代中央调剂方案,对养老保险基金进行省际调剂。现有文献研究了统筹调剂方案的财政负担、可持续性问题,尚未关注其调剂效果测算。基于此,文章构建养老保险精算模型,对比中央调剂方案,分析统筹调剂方案下基金省际差距变化趋势,并进一步探讨优化路径:第一,基金当期结余省际差距上,统筹调剂方案仅在2023—2028年低于中央调剂方案,2025年最低,相比下降95.93%;基金可支付水平省际差距上,统筹调剂方案在测算期内均低于中央调剂方案。第二,2026年开始,全国当期结余将难以满足统筹调剂方案的调剂资金需求,导致调剂效果持续下降。第三,累计结余再次调剂可优化调剂持续性,其中48.5%部分累计结余再调剂模式可维持调剂效果并平衡累计结余支出和财政支出。建议规划累计结余再调剂方案,完善保费征缴激励机制。In 2022,China implemented the policy of national pooling of pension insurance for urban employees,replacing the central adjustment scheme with the pooling adjustment scheme,and making inter-provincial adjustment to the pension insurance fund.Existing literature analyzed the financial burden and sustainability of the pooling adjustment scheme,but haven't yet focus on the measurement of its adjustment effect.Based on this,the article constructs an actuarial model of pension insurance,compares the central adjustment scheme,analyzes the trend of the inter-provincial disparity of the fund under the pooling adjustment scheme,and further explores the optimization path:first,on the inter-provincial disparity of the current fund balance,the pooling adjustment scheme will be lower than the central adjustment scheme only in the years of 2023-2028,and will be the lowest in the year of 2025,which is a decrease of 95.93% compared with the central adjustment scheme;on the inter-provincial disparity of the fund's payable level,the pooling adjustment scheme is lower than the central adjustment scheme in the measurement period.Secondly,starting from 2026,the national current balance will be insufficient to form the pooling adjustment fund demand of the pooling adjustment scheme,resulting in a continuous decline in the adjustment effect.Third,the cumulative balance re-adjustment can optimize the adjustment continuity,in which the 48.5% part of the cumulative balance re-adjustment mode can maintain the adjustment effect and balance the fund's cumulative balance expenditure and fiscal expenditure.It is recommended to plan the cumulative balance re-adjustment option and improve the incentive mechanism for premium collection.

关 键 词：全国统筹 养老保险 省际差距 基金调剂 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]