多风险因素融合驱动的民航旅客风险评估方法  

A Risk Assessment Method for Civil Aviation Passengers Based on The Fusion of Multi-risk Factors

作　　者：杨俊[1] 刘昊燃 吴仁彪[1] 王菲茵 YANG Jun;LIU Haoran;WU Renbiao;WANG Feiyin(Tianjin Key Laboratory for Advanced Signal Processing,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学天津市智能信号与图像处理重点实验室,天津300300

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2024年第6期31-41,94,共12页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2133204)资助。

摘　　要：民航旅客是民航安保事件的主要实施主体。因此,为准确评估民航旅客的风险级别,提出了1种多风险因素融合驱动的民航旅客风险评估方法。采用统计分析-法规-专家调查法开展旅客风险因素的辨识,根据风险因素特性将旅客风险因素划分为可能性、危害性和严重性等3个主要部分。结合控制措施,构建了基于多风险因素的民航旅客风险指标体系,该体系共包含7个一级指标,18个二级指标。区间层次分析法可充分考虑专家判断的不确定性和模糊性,集值统计法可实现对模糊指标的定量化表述;综合2种方法的优点,研究了1种基于区间层次分析法和集值统计法相结合的风险指标权重的定量化分析方法,实现民航旅客风险指标权重系数的确定。从实际应用需求出发,以旅客行程过程为时间线,结合实时采集的旅客安保数据,开展了1种基于多风险因素融合的民航旅客风险评估方法研究,实现民航旅客风险的全流程动态量化评估。在构建的验证数据集上,本文方法的高风险旅客召回率达到了92%,无高风险旅客被评估为低风险的情况;中风险旅客的召回率达到了96%,只有2%的中风险旅客被评估为低风险;低风险旅客的召回率也达到了96%,无低风险旅客被评估为高风险。本文提出的民航旅客风险评估方法在有效结合专家经验和指标特征的基础上可实现旅客风险的动态量化评估,能够为更加全面、合理和科学地民航旅客风险分析提供理论支持。Civil aviation passengers are the main implementers of civil aviation security measures.Therefore,in or-der to accurately assess the risk level of civil aviation passengers,a civil aviation passenger risk assessment method based on the fusion of multi-risk factors is proposed.The risk factors associated with passengers are identified through statistical analysis,regulation and expert investigation.According to the characteristics,the risk factors asso-ciated with passengers are categorized into three main parts:possibility,hazard and severity.Combined with the con-trol measures,a risk index system for civil aviation passengers based on multi-risk factors is constructed,which con-tains 7 first-level indicators and 18 second-level indicators.The interval analytic hierarchy process can fully account for the uncertainty and fuzziness of expert judgments,while the set value statistics method allows for the quantita-tive representation of fuzzy indicators.By combining the advantages of these two methods,a quantitative analysis method based on the combination of internal analytic hierarchy process and set value statistics method are applied to calculate the weight coefficients of the risk indicators.To meet practical application requirements,passenger securi-ty data are collected throughout the passenger journey.And a risk assessment method for civil aviation passengers,based on the fusion of multi-risk factors,is proposed to enable dynamic quantitative risk assessments throughout the entire process.The proposed method is validated using a constructed validation dataset.The experimental results show that the recall rate for high-risk passengers reached 92%,with no high-risk passengers being assessed as low risk.The recall rate for medium-risk passengers reached 96%,with only 2%of medium-risk passengers assessed as low risk.The recall rate for low-risk passengers also reached 96%,with no low-risk passengers assessed as high risk.The proposed method enables a dynamic quantification assessment of civil aviation passenger r

关 键 词：民航安保 旅客风险 多风险因素 评估 全流程 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]