2005-2023年汕头市澄海区肺结核的发病现状和变化趋势  

Incidence status and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Chenghai District,Shantou City,2005-2023

作　　者：许泽敏 李炼冲 吴远锐 赵晓丹 蚁晓锐 林欣聪 常巧呈 XU Zemin;LI Lianchong;WU Yuanrui;ZHAO Xiaodan;YI Xiaorui;LIN Xincong;CHANG Qiaocheng(Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Chenghai District,Shantou 515800,China;School of Public Health,Shantou University,Shantou 515021,China)

机构地区：[1]汕头市澄海区疾病预防控制中心,广东汕头515800 [2]汕头大学公共卫生学院,广东汕头515021

出　　处：《健康研究》2025年第1期22-26,共5页Health Research

摘　　要：目的分析2005-2023年汕头市澄海区的肺结核发病情况和变化规律,为有效降低本区的肺结核发病率提供科学依据。方法根据中国疾病预防控制信息系统中汕头市澄海区2005-2023年报告的肺结核数据分析其发病特征,并采用Joinpoint回归模型分析肺结核的发病变化趋势。结果2005-2023年澄海区共报告肺结核发病数13224例,年均报告发病率81.98/10万,年均标化报告发病率为86.59/10万,发病率曲线呈波动分布(AAPC=-4.79%,P=0.133);男性年均报告发病率(121.15/10万)高于女性(42.33/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=38.32,P<0.001);男性发病率呈波动变化趋势(AAPC=-5.32%,P=0.162),女性发病率呈显著下降趋势(AAPC=-5.51%,P=0.039)。发病人数较多的为凤翔街道、莲下镇和广益街道,发病率较高的为凤翔街道和盐鸿镇;年龄组分布以60岁及以上老年人为主,30~44岁年龄组的肺结核发病率呈显著下降趋势(AAPC=-5.04%,P=0.006),15~29岁、45~59岁和≥60岁年龄组发病率分别以-3.30%、-5.07%和-4.37%的速率波动。结论2005-2023年,汕头市澄海区肺结核发病率总体呈现波动趋势,高危人群为男性、老年人和低收入人群,高危地区为流动人口聚集地区和农村地区。建议强化高危人群筛查和加强人群健康教育,降低肺结核的发病率。Objective To analyze the incidence and trends of tuberculosis(TB)in Chenghai District,Shantou City from 2005 to 2023,and provide scientific evidence for effectively reducing the TB incidence rate in this region.Methods The incidence characteristics of TB were analyzed based on the data reported from 2005 to 2023 in Chenghai District,Shantou City,from the Chinese center for disease control and prevention information system.The Joinpoint regression model was used to assess the changing trends of TB incidence.Results A total of 13224 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Chenghai District from 2005 to 2023,with an average annual crude reported incidence rate of 81.98/100000,the average annual standardized reported incidence rate was 86.59/100000.The incidence rate curve showed a fluctuating distribution(AAPC=-4.79%,P=0.133).The average annual reported incidence rates for males and females were 121.15 per 100000 and 42.33 per 100000,respectively,with a significantly higher incidence rate in males(χ^(2)=38.32,P<0.001).The incidence rate for males showed a fluctuating trend(AAPC=-5.32%,P=0.162),while that for females showed a declining trend(AAPC=-5.51%,P=0.039).The areas with the highest number of cases were Fengxiang Street,Lianxia Town,and Guangyi Street,while the highest incidence rates were in Fengxiang Street and Yanhong Town.The age distribution was primarily among individuals aged 60 and above,with a significant downward trend in the incidence rate for the 30-44 age group(AAPC=-5.04%,P=0.006).The incidence rates for the 15-29,45-59,and≥60 age groups fluctuated at rates of-3.30%,-5.07%,and-4.37%,respectively.Conclusions From 2005 to 2023,the overall TB incidence rate in Chenghai District exhibited a fluctuating trend,with high-risk groups including males,the elderly,and low-income groups,while the high-risk areas are areas with concentrated floating populations and rural areas.It is recommended to strengthen screening among high-risk groups and enhance health education to reduce the incidence of tu

关 键 词：汕头市 肺结核 发病趋势 连接点回归分析 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]