2014-2023年余姚市慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡率变化趋势分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of mortality trend of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Yuyao City,2014-2023

作　　者：周科员 董沙沙 ZHOU Keyuan;DONG Shasha(Department of Critical Care Medicine,Yuyao Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Yuyao 315400,China;Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Yuyao County Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yuyao 315400,China)

机构地区：[1]余姚市中医医院重症医学科,浙江余姚315400 [2]余姚市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科,浙江余姚315400

出　　处：《健康研究》2025年第1期34-40,共7页Health Research

摘　　要：目的分析2014-2023年浙江省余姚市户籍居民慢性阻塞性肺疾病(chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,COPD)死亡监测数据,了解COPD死亡率的变化趋势,为相关部门制定科学疾病防控策略提供依据。方法以余姚市户籍居民为对象,收集宁波数字疾控平台死因监测模块中死亡日期为2014年1月1日-2023年12月31日的全部COPD死亡病例信息,分别计算粗死亡率、中标/世标死亡率、年龄别死亡率、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积率、过早死亡率、潜在减寿年数、平均减寿年数、潜在减寿年数率、平均年度变化百分比等指标,建立灰色预测模型GM(1,1),对2014-2023年COPD粗死亡率、中标死亡率、世标死亡率进行拟合,同时预测2024-2027年COPD死亡率。结果2014-2023年余姚市累计报告COPD死亡5560例,粗死亡率为66.59/10万;男性死亡率(77.54/10万)高于女性(55.97/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=145.893,P<0.001);中标死亡率为27.60/10万、世标死亡率为19.46/10万、35~64岁截缩率为3.57/10万、0~74岁累积率为0.76%、过早死亡率为0.31%;10年间粗死亡率、中标死亡率、世标死亡率、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积率、过早死亡率均呈下降趋势,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。COPD死亡年龄30.05~105.79岁,中位死亡年龄[84.84(79.60,89.16)]岁,女性死亡年龄大于男性,差异有统计学意义(Z=-12.640,P<0.001);COPD死亡率随年龄增长呈上升趋势(χ_(趋势)^(2)=20062.590,P<0.001)。GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测2024-2027年COPD死亡率将继续呈下降趋势。结论近10年和未来4年,余姚市的COPD死亡率呈下降趋势,但防控形势依然严峻;建议科学采取全人群和以男性、老年人为高危人群两者相结合的防控策略进一步降低COPD死亡率,减轻疾病负担。Objective To analyze the mortality data of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)among registered residents in Yuyao City,Zhejiang Province,from 2014 to 2023,to understand the trends in COPD mortality rates,and to provide a basis for relevant departments to formulate scientific disease prevention and control strategies.Methods Data on all COPD deaths from January 1st,2014,to December 31st,2023,were collected from the mortality monitoring module of the Ningbo digital disease control platform,targeting registered residents of Yuyao City.Various indicators such as crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,age-specific mortality rate,truncated rate for ages 35-64,cumulative rate for ages 0-74,premature mortality rate,potential years of life loss(PYLL),average years of life loss(AYLL),potential years of life loss rate(PYLLR),average annual percent change(AAPC)and other indicators were calculated respectively.A grey prediction model GM(1,1)was established to fit the crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,and world-standardized mortality rate from 2014 to 2023,and to predict the COPD mortality rate from 2024 to 2027.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 5560 cases of COPD death were reported in Yuyao City,with a crude mortality rate of 66.59 per 100000.The mortality rate in males(77.54 per 100000)was higher than in females(55.97 per 100000),with a statistically significant difference(χ^(2)=145.893,P<0.0001).The standardized mortality rate was 27.60 per 100000,and the world-standardized mortality rate was 19.46 per 100000.The truncated rate for ages 35-64 was 3.57 per 100000,the cumulative rate for ages 0-74 was 0.76%,and the premature mortality rate was 0.31%.Over the decade,the crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,world-standardized mortality rate,truncated rate for ages 35-64,cumulative rate for ages 0-74,and premature mortality rate all showed a downward trend,with statistically significant differences(P<0.05).The age range of COPD deaths was 30.05 to 105.79 years,with a median age o

关 键 词：慢性阻塞性肺疾病 死亡率 预测 防控 疾病负担 

分 类 号：R563.9[医药卫生—呼吸系统]