地方政府债务影响经济增长的投资机制检验  

An Examination of the Investment Mechanism of Local Government Debt Affecting Economic Growth

作　　者：冯梦缘 刘立峰[2] Feng Mengyuan;Liu Lifeng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京102401 [2]中国宏观经济研究院投资研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《天府新论》2025年第2期119-135,159,160,共19页New Horizons from Tianfu

摘　　要：以地方政府债务存量与增量双重视角验证地方政府债务的经济增长效应,可从经济增长数量、质量与增速三个维度切入分析。本文以2007—2022年我国地级市的数据为样本进行实证分析,采用GMM方法与工具变量法消除内生性影响。实证结果表明,地方政府债务存量与增量均显著促进经济增长数量、经济增长质量与经济增长速度的提升。西部地区和东北地区在政府举债投资促进经济增长方面具有更大的发挥空间。区别于经济基础设施投资仅在促进经济增长数量方面发挥中介效用,社会基础设施投资在地方政府债务促进经济增长数量、经济增长质量、技术进步及经济增长速度方面均发挥中介效用,对经济增长潜力呈现出较为强劲的正向影响。私人投资挤出虽然削弱了地方政府债务对经济增长数量的促进作用,但在促进经济增长质量与经济增长速度方面发挥了中介效用。地方政府应因地制宜布局投资领域,从“资本要素拉动”转向“公共服务驱动”,结合地区发展特征协调好经济基础设施投资与社会基础设施投资的关系;同时,将地方政府债务规模控制在合理区间,降低私人投资挤出的负面影响。This paper examines the economic growth effect of local government debt from the dual per⁃spectives of local government debt stock and increment,including the analysis of the quantity,quality and rate of economic growth.In this paper,the data of prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2022 are used as samples for empirical analysis,and the GMM method and instrumental variable method are used to eliminate the endog⁃enous effects.The empirical results indicate that both the stock and the increment of local government debt sig⁃nificantly promote the improvement of the quantity,quality and rate of economic growth.The western and northeastern regions have greater potential for government debt investment to promote economic growth.Differ⁃ent from economic infrastructure investment,which only plays an intermediary role in promoting the quantity of economic growth,social infrastructure investment plays an intermediary role in promoting the quantity and quality of economic growth,the technological progress,and the rate of economic growth through local govern⁃ment debt,showing a relatively strong positive impact on economic growth potential.The crowding out of pri⁃vate investment weakens the promoting effect of local government debt on the quantity of economic growth,but also plays an intermediary role in promoting the quality and rate of economic growth.Local governments should lay out investment areas according to local conditions,shift from“capital factor driven”to“public service driven”,and coordinate the relationship between economic infrastructure investment and social infrastructure investment in combination with regional development characteristics.The scale of local government debt should be controlled within a reasonable range to reduce the negative impact of private investment crowding out.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 经济增长 经济基础设施投资 社会基础设施投资 私人投资 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F124