北部湾港与广西区域经济的协同发展研究——基于灰色关联度和VAR双重模型检验  

Study on the Coordinated Development of Beibu Gulf Port and Guangxi Regional Economy--A Double Model Test Based on Gray Correlation Degree and VAR

作　　者：杨晓彦 占金刚 詹满琳 YANG Xiaoyan;ZHAN Jingang;ZHAN Manlin(School of Economics and Management,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535011,China;School of Mechanical and Marine Engineering,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535011,China)

机构地区：[1]北部湾大学经济管理学院,广西钦州535011 [2]北部湾大学机械船舶与海洋工程学院,广西钦州535011

出　　处：《物流科技》2025年第5期109-114,共6页Logistics Sci Tech

基　　金：2021年广西哲学社会科学规划研究课题项目“双循环背景下西部陆海新通道沿线城市互动合作机制及路径研究”(21BYJ027)。

摘　　要：文章以北部湾港和广西区域经济为研究对象,通过构建港口和区域经济的评价指标体系,采用灰色关联度和VAR双重模型,检验2020—2022年北部湾港和广西区域经济之间的联系、动态关系和贡献程度。得到结论:(1)货物吞吐量与广西区域经济各项指标的关联度均在0.6以上,整体关联度在0.75以上,说明北部湾港和广西区域经济具有紧密的联系,但相对于其他的指标,货物吞吐量与利用外资、全社会固定资产投资总额的关联性相对较弱;(2)北部湾港和广西区域经济之间存在长期的积极影响,二者相互促进,但货物吞吐量对第二产业产值、第一产业产值存在正向、负向交替冲击,存在负向影响;(3)北部湾港和广西区域经济之间普遍存在较高的贡献度,但广西区域经济对北部湾港的整体贡献程度要弱于北部湾港对广西区域经济的整体贡献度,且北部湾港与广西区域经济之间的贡献程度差异以社会消费品零售总额、第三产业总值最为显著。由此,文章提出相应的对策和建议,以促进北部湾港和广西区域经济的高质量协同发展。This paper takes Beibu Gulf Port and Guangxi regional economy as the research object,constructs the evaluation index system of port and regional economy,adopts the grey correlation degree and VAR dual model,and tests the connection,dynamic relationship and contribution degree between Beibu Gulf Port and Guangxi regional economy in 2020 to 2022.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The correlation degree between cargo throughput and various indicators of Guangxi regional economy is above 0.6,and the overall correlation degree is above 0.75,indicating that Beibu Gulf Port and Guangxi regional economy are closely related,but compared with other indicators,the correlation between cargo throughput and utilization of foreign capital and total social investment in fixed assets is relatively weak;(2)There is a long-term positive impact between Beibu Gulf Port and Guangxi regional economy,and the two promote each other,but the cargo throughput has an alternating positive and negative impact on the output value of the secondary industry and the output value of the primary industry;(3)There is generally a high contribution degree between Beibu Gulf Port and Guangxi regional economy,but the overall contribution degree of Guangxi regional economy to Beibu Gulf Port is weaker than that of Beibu Gulf Port.The difference of contribution degree between Beibu Gulf Port and Guangxi regional economy is most significant in the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the total value of tertiary industry.Therefore,the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to promote the high-quality cooperative development of Beibu Gulf Port and Guangxi regional economy.

关 键 词：北部湾港口 区域经济 灰色关联度分析 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]