基于改进稳定映射法的云南省土壤侵蚀强度变化轨迹及其驱动因素  

Analysis of Soil Erosion Intensity Change Trajectories and Their Driving Factors in Yunnan Province Based on An Improved Stability Mapping Method

作　　者：马岽玲 彭双云[1,2] 黄帮梅 张瑞[1,2] 李婷 MA Dongling;PENG Shuangyun;HUANG Bangmei;ZHANG Rui;LI Ting(Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;GIS Technology Research Center of Resource and Environment in Western China of Ministry of Education Normal University,Kunming 650500,China;Kunming No.10 High School,Kunming 650011,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学地理学部,昆明650500 [2]西部资源环境地理信息技术教育部工程研究中心,昆明650500 [3]昆明市第十中学,昆明650500

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2025年第1期102-112,119,共12页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42261073,41971369,42261037);云南省中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目(202305AC160083,202205AC160014);云南省重大科技专项(202202AD080010);云南省基础研究面上项目(202401AT070103);云南省基础研究专项重点项目(202201AS070024,202001AS070032)。

摘　　要：[目的]揭示云南省1990—2022年土壤侵蚀强度的变化轨迹,分析其变化类型及驱动因素,为制定有效的土壤侵蚀防治策略提供科学依据。[方法]基于RUSLE模型定量评估云南省土壤侵蚀强度状况,并引入年际变化速率捕捉其动态特征;采用改进的稳定映射法(STD),结合变化速率和变化频率,识别土壤侵蚀强度变化轨迹类型;利用随机森林模型分析驱动因素的贡献度,并比较不同轨迹类型分区的驱动因子特征。[结果]1)云南省土壤侵蚀年际变化趋势以基本稳定为主,大幅减少和大幅增加区域面积变化显著;2)土壤侵蚀强度变化轨迹呈显著空间分异,周期型轨迹占比最高(53.90%),其次为非连续阶梯型(14.78%)和波动型(14.08%);3)降水、坡度、人口密度、GDP和植被覆盖度是影响土壤侵蚀强度轨迹变化的主要驱动因素,贡献度分别为17.92%、14.56%、12.52%、12.67%和9.41%;4)不同轨迹类型分区的驱动因素存在差异,周期型轨迹和非连续阶梯型轨迹分区降水量和坡度较大,阶梯型轨迹分区农田覆盖比例高、森林覆盖比例低。[结论]云南省土壤侵蚀强度的轨迹变化特征显著,驱动机制具有空间异质性。因此,土壤侵蚀防治策略应体现区域差异化和针对性,并针对不同区域的特点采取因地制宜的措施。基于变化速率的STD轨迹分区方法可有效刻画土壤侵蚀的动态变化过程,为土壤侵蚀的监测、预警和分区防治提供新的思路。[Objective]To elucidate the change trajectories of soil erosion intensity in Yunnan Province from 1990 to 2022,and analyze the types of changes and their driving factors,in order to provide a scientific foundation for effective soil erosion control strategies.[Methods]Soil erosion intensity conditions in Yunnan Province was quantitatively assessed based on the RUSLE model,and the dynamic characteristics were captured by introducing interannual change rates.Soil erosion intensity change trajectory types were identified by combining change rates and frequencies using an improved Stability Mapping Method(STD).The contribution of driving factors were analyzed,and the characteristics of driving factors across different trajectory types were compared using the Random Forest model.[Results]The interannual change trend of soil erosion in Yunnan Province was mainly stable,with significant changes observed in areas with substantial decrease and increase.Soil erosion intensity change trajectories exhibited significant spatial differentiation,with cyclical trajectories being the most prevalent(53.90%),followed by non-continuous stepwise(14.78%)and fluctuating types(14.08%).Precipitation,slope,population density,GDP,and vegetation cover were the main driving factors affecting soil erosion intensity trajectory changes,which contributed 17.92%,14.56%,12.52%,12.67%and 9.41%,respectively.There were differences in driving factors across different trajectory types.Areas with cyclical and non-continuous stepwise trajectories had higher precipitation and greater slopes,while stepwise trajectory areas had higher farmland coverage and lower forest coverage.[Conclusion]The characteristics of soil erosion intensity trajectory changes in Yunnan Province are significant,with spatial heterogeneity in driving mechanisms.Therefore,soil erosion control strategies should reflect regional differentiation and specificity,and adopt location-specific measures based on regional characteristics.The STD trajectory partitioning method based on change r

关 键 词：土壤侵蚀强度 稳定映射法 变化轨迹 变化速率 轨迹分区 

分 类 号：S154.2[农业科学—土壤学]