多源降水产品在天山典型流域的评估及径流模拟  

The Applicability Evaluation of Multisource Precipitation Data for Runoff Simulation in a Typical Basin on the Tianshan Mountains

作　　者：王文雨 刘刚[1,2] 王晓燕 庞李玲[1,2] 冯同飞 谷黄河 WANG Wenyu;LIU Gang;WANG Xiaoyan;PANG Liling;FENG Tongfei;GU Huanghe(The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Hydrological Survey and Research Center,Baoding,Hebei 071025,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [3]河北省保定水文勘测研究中心,河北保定071025

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2025年第1期284-293,共10页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42277074);中央高校基本科研业务项目(B240201075);水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022074)。

摘　　要：[目的]为探究不同降水产品在天山高寒流域的特征差异及水文模拟应用潜力。[方法]结合不同统计指标及HBV水文模型,对比分析5套降水产品(基于站点插值的格点化数据CN05.1,卫星降水数据GPM、亚洲地区高质量高时空分辨率降水数据集AIMERG、再分析数据CMFD和ERA5)在玛纳斯河源区的降水时空分布特征,评估不同产品精度,研究不同降水产品在径流模拟中的适用性。[结果]5套降水产品的年降水均呈现从北到南先增加后减小的空间特征,仅有AIMERG和CMFD可捕捉到冰川区降水高的特征;不同产品的降水年内变化特征一致,但夏季降水量差异显著,ERA5的夏季平均降水量达CN05.1的2倍,GPM降水量最低;GPM降水产品低估观测月降水,且在春季和冬季低估最为严重(64%~76%),而CMFD、ERA5和AIMERG 3套降水产品整体高估观测月降水,其中ERA5高估最为严重,尤其在夏秋季(134%~206%),CMFD对月降水略有高估。AIMERG与站点月降水的相关性较高,在雨季和非雨季也呈较高的日降水成功指数;基于AIMERG、CMFD及CN05.1的日径流模拟效果相近且精度高于其他数据集,纳什效率系数为0.81~0.82,相对误差低于6%,前2套降水产品对径流极值的模拟能力总体高于CN05.1。[结论]AIMERG和CMFD在玛纳斯河源区径流模拟中有较大的优势,研究可为气象资料匮乏的天山地区的径流模拟及水土流失预防研究提供数据参考。[Objective]To explore the differences in precipitation characteristics for multisource precipitation products and their applicability for runoff simulation in an alpine basin on the Tianshan Mountains.[Methods]A comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation was conducted in the upper reaches of the Manas River Basin,based on the datasets CN05.1,GPM,AIMERG,CMFD and ERA5.Subsequently,the accuracy of different products was evaluated based on observed precipitation,and their applicabilities for runoff simulation were assessed by means of HBV hydrological model.[Results]The spatial pattern for all the precipitation products was characterized by a first increase and then a decrease from the north to south,whereas only AIMERG and CMFD were able to display higher precipitation in the glacier area.Consistent seasonal variation were detected,but large differences in summer precipitation were shown.In summer,ERA5 was twice as much as CN05.1,and GPM was lower than the other precipitation products.GPM underestimated the monthly precipitation,especially in winter and spring(64%—76%).While the monthly precipitation was overestimated by CMFD,ERA5 and AIMERG.The overestimation of ERA5 was the most serious,especially in summer and autumn(134%—206%),and CMFD slightly overestimated the monthly precipitation.AIMERG had a higher correlation with the observed monthly precipitation and greater critical success index in both rainy season and the non-rainy season.AIMERG,CMFD and CN05.1 had the greatest ability to reproduce daily runoff,with a higher NSE(0.81—0.82)and lower relative error(<6%).Moreover,the former two products showed a better performance in reproducing extreme runoff when compared with CN05.1.[Conclusion]AIMERG and CMFD show great potential in runoff simulation of the upper Manas River.The results can serve as data references for runoff simulation and soil erosion prevention research in the Tianshan region,where meteorological data are limited.

关 键 词：径流模拟 玛纳斯河源区 HBV水文模型 天山山区 卫星降水 再分析数据 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]