基于情景分析法的疆煤铁路外运量预测  

Prediction of Outbound Railway Freight Volume for Xinjiang Coal Based on Scenario Analysis Method

作　　者：袁博 YUAN Bo(China Railway Engineering Design and Consulting Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100055,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁工程设计咨询集团有限公司,北京100055

出　　处：《高速铁路技术》2025年第1期29-34,共6页High Speed Railway Technology

摘　　要：新疆作为我国重要的能源资源接续区和战略储备区,在煤炭应急保供和国家发展大局保障方面的重要支撑作用将日趋凸显。由于目前我国煤炭市场不确定性较多,疆煤外运量具有极大波动性。为全面考量疆煤外运规模的不同可能性、合理预测疆煤运量规模,针对疆煤外运因受国际煤炭贸易格局、国内能源供需格局等因素动态影响而具有极大不确定性的特点,本文采用情景分析法对全国煤炭供给格局及相应的疆煤外运水平展开分析,研判未来疆煤铁路外运总体规模,提出了疆煤外运通道补强、重要节点车站运输效率提升、车流调整和空车调配加强等方面的具体建议,为促进疆煤外运高质量发展、增强国家能源安全保障能力,未来发展做好充分储备提供理论支撑和决策依据。Xinjiang serves as a crucial energy resource continuation zone and strategic reserve area in China,and its vital supporting role in ensuring emergency coal supplies and safeguarding the overall national development will become increasingly prominent.Due to the highly uncertainty of current coal market in China,there is the significant fluctuations in the volume of coal outbound transport in Xinjiang.To determine the multiple possibilities of coal transport scale in Xinjiang and predict the scale of coal transport in Xinjiang reasonably,this paper addressed the highly uncertain characteristics of the coal transport in Xinjiang due to multiple dynamic factors such as international coal trade pattern,domestic energy supply and demand pattern.The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the coal supply pattern in China and the corresponding level of Xinjiang coal transport.Based on which,the overall scale of future railway coal outbound was assessed in Xinjiang,and specific suggestions were proposed regarding reinforcing Xinjiang coal outbound transport channels,enhancing transportation efficiency at key node stations,adjusting train flow,and strengthening empty wagon allocation.These suggestions provide theoretical support and decision-making basis for promoting high-quality development of Xinjiang coal outbound transport,enhancing the national energy security guarantee capacity and making sufficient reserves for future development.

关 键 词：新疆 煤炭外运 铁路 情景分析法 产销平衡 

分 类 号：U294[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] F532.8[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]