突发公共卫生事件风险防范化解保障评价指标体系的构建  

The construction of an evaluation indicator system for risk prevention,mitigation,and security of public health emergencies

作　　者：王淑君 王琦琦[1] 李俊琦 郑文静[1] 于石成[1] WANG Shujun;WANG Qiqi;LI Junqi;ZHENG Wenjing;YU Shicheng(Office of Epidemiology,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心流行病学办公室,北京102206

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2024年第12期1532-1537,共6页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：游轮环境下COVID-19病毒传播的数学模型和防控措施效果模拟研究。

摘　　要：目的开发一套融入社会共治理念、科学研究、现代信息技术的突发公共卫生事件风险防范化解保障评价指标体系,指导省级或地市级完善保障体系。方法经过两轮改良德尔菲法,应用界值法,结合专家咨询意见和建议,最终确定指标体系;采用百分权重法和秩和比法分别获取各级指标的权重,重要性和代表性的权重。结果两轮改良德尔菲法调查结果提示,第一、二轮问卷回收率均为100.00%。第一轮各级指标重要性的肯德尔和谐系数为0.14~0.28,代表性为0.15~0.26;第二轮重要性的肯德尔系数为0.14~0.31,代表性为0.18~0.48。第一轮各级指标熟悉程度系数为0.53~0.82,判断系数为0.83~0.92,专家权威系数为0.68~0.87;第二轮各级指标熟悉程度系数为0.57~0.84,判断系数为0.82~0.91,专家权威系数为0.70~0.87。第一轮中,指标7.1.1社会共治协调机制的建设、7.2.1五社联动的权威系数有部分<0.7,第二轮则全部≥0.7。结论本研究基于定性和定量,构建了一套具有时代特点的突发公共卫生事件风险防范化解保障评价指标体系,并给出了各级指标的权重,重要性和代表性的权重,有一定的科学性、适用性和时代性。Objective To develop an evaluation index system for the risk prevention and mitigation of public health emergencies,incorporating the concept of social co-governance,scientific research,and modern information technology,to guide and improve the support system at the provincial or municipal levels.MethodsTThrough two rounds of the modified Delphi method and the application of the boundary value method,combined with expert consultations and suggestions,the final indicator system was built.The weights of all levels,as well as the importance and representativeness of all indicators,were derived using the percentile weight method and the rank sum ratio method.Results The results from the two rounds of the modified Delphi consultation survey indicated a 100.00%response rate for both rounds.The Kendall coefficients for the importance of indicators at all levels in the first round ranged from 0.14 to O.28,and the coefficient of the representativeness was 0.15 to 0.26.In the second round,the Kendall coefficients for the importance ranged from 0.14 to 0.31,and for representativeness,from 0.18 to 0.48.The familiarity coefficients for the indicators in the first round were 0.53 to 0.82,the judgment coefficients from 0.83 to 0.92,and the expert authority coefficients ranged from 0.68 to 0.87.In the second round,familiarity coefficients ranged from 0.57 to 0.84,judgment coefficients from 0.82 to 0.91,and expert authority coefficients from 0.70 to 0.87.In the first round,the authority coefficients for the indicators related to the construction of social co-governance coordination mechanisms(7.1.1)and the five-community linkage(7.2.1)did not reach 0.70,while in the second round,all of them were greater than O.70.Conclusions Based on qualitative and quantitative methods,this study ultimately constructed a set of support evaluation indicator systems for preventing and mitigating risks of public health emergencies,providing weights for indices at various levels,along with their importance and representativeness,demonstrating a degr

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 风险防范化解 改良德尔菲法 社会共治 现代信息技术 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]