Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt:Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations  

作　　者：Jian Ma Katsuichiro Goda Han-Ping Hong Kai Liu Weijin Xu Jia Cheng Ming Wang 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,China Earthquake Administration/Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,Ministry of Emergency Management,Harbin 150080,China [2]School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [3]Department of Earth Sciences,Western University,London,Ontario N6A 5B7,Canada [4]School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology(Shenzhen),Shenzhen 518055,China [5]State Key Lab of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijng 100875,China [6]Laboratory of Strong Motion Seismology,Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100081,China [7]School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geosciences Beijing,Beijing 100083,China

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2024年第6期954-971,共18页国际灾害风险科学学报(英文版)

基　　金：financial support from the Scientific Research Fund of the Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant No.2023B09)。

摘　　要：In this study,a multi-source data fusion method was proposed for the development of a Hybrid seismic hazard model(HSHM)in China by using publicly available data of the 5th Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map(NSGM)and historical seismic catalogues and integrating with modern ground motion prediction equations(GMPEs).This model incorporates the characteristics of smoothed seismicity and areal sources for regional seismic hazard assessment.The probabilistic seismic hazard for the North China Plain earthquake belt was investigated through sensitivity analysis related to the seismicity model and GMPEs.The analysis results indicate that the Hybrid model can produce a consistent result with the NSGM model in many cases.However,the NSGM model tends to overestimate hazard values in locations where no major events have occurred and underestimate hazard values in locations where major events have occurred.The Hybrid model can mitigate the degree of such biases.Compared to the modern GMPEs,the GMPE with epicentral distance measures significantly underestimate the seismic hazard under near-field and large-magnitude scenarios.In addition,a comparison of the uniform hazard spectra(UHS)obtained by the models,with China's design spectrum,shows that the current design spectrum is more conservative than the calculated UHS.

关 键 词：Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Seismic hazard model Seismic risk Sensitivity analysis 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]