Agroecology-based land use/land cover change detection,prediction and its implications for land degradation:A case study in the Upper Blue Nile Basin  

作　　者：Taye Minichil Meshesha Atsushi Tsunekawa Nigussie Haregeweyn Mitsuru Tsubo Ayele Almaw Fenta Mulatu Liyew Berihun Arega Mulu Tadesual Asamin Setargie Samuel Berihun Kassa 

机构地区：[1]The United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences,Tottori University,4-101 Koyama-Minami,Tottori,680-8553,Japan [2]School of Civil and Water Resource Engineering,Debre Markos Institute of Technology,Debre Markos University,P.O.Box 269,Debre Markos,Ethiopia [3]Arid Land Research Center,Tottori University,1390 Hamasaka,Tottori,680-0001,Japan [4]International Platform for Dryland Research and Education,Tottori University,1390 Hamasaka,Tottori,680-0001,Japan [5]Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering,Tropical Research and Education Center,IFAS,University of Florida,Homestead,FL,USA [6]Faculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering,Bahir Dar Institute of Technology,Bahir Dar University,P.O.Box 26,Bahir Dar,Ethiopia

出　　处：《International Soil and Water Conservation Research》2024年第4期786-797,共12页国际水土保持研究(英文)

基　　金：supported by the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development(SATREPS,grant number JPMJSA1601)from the Japan Science and Technology Agency/Japan International Cooperation Agency。

摘　　要：This study examined land use/land cover(LULC)changes in Chemoga watershed of the Upper Blue Nile Basin,comprising four distinct agroecological regions:Wet Wurch,Moist Dega,Moist Weyna Dega,and Moist Kolla.We used multi-temporal Landsat images from 1985 to 2020,a hybrid classification method and the Cellular Automata-Markov model to analyze historical and predict future(2020-2060)LULC changes under business-as-usual(BAU)and land conservation(LC)scenarios.Magnitudes and patterns of spaciotemporal LULC changes were analyzed using intensity analysis.Cropland expanded across all agroecologies from 1985 to 2020,with Moist Kolla experiencing the highest increase at the expense of woodland,due the introduction of commercial farming to this hotter,less populated and inaccessible area.Moist Dega exhibited the highest allocation changes within cropland and forest,attributable to farmers’adoption of rotational land use to rehabilitate extensively degraded cultivated lands.Under the BAU scenario,projections suggest further cropland expansion at expense of woodland in Moist Kolla and built-up areas at the expense of cropland and grassland in Moist Dega.Under the LC scenario,forest cover is expected to increase at the expense of cropland across all agroecologies.The historical and projected BAU LULC change scenario substantially increased soil erosion and reduced ecosystem services.These effects can be minimized if LC scenario is properly implemented.The agroecology-based LULC intensity analysis reveals local drivers of change and associated impacts,providing vital insights for targeted land use planning in this study watershed and other watersheds facing similar challenges.

关 键 词：Drought-prone Remote sensing Land use planning LULC prediction Intensity analysis 

分 类 号：S15[农业科学—土壤学]