基于标签时间Petri网的DES故障概率及发生时间预测  

Prediction of fault probability and occurrence date for discrete event systems based on labeled time Petri nets

作　　者：刘慧敏 黎良 LIU Hui-min;LI Liang(School of Information Science and Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China;Engineering Research Center for Metallurgical Automation and Measurement Technology of Ministry of Education,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学信息科学与工程学院,武汉430081 [2]武汉科技大学冶金自动化与检测技术教育部工程研究中心,武汉430081

出　　处：《控制与决策》2025年第2期581-589,共9页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(62303359)。

摘　　要：为了解决部分可观离散事件系统(discrete event systems,DES)的故障预测问题,提出一种基于标签时间Petri网的DES故障概率及发生时间的预测方法.首先,利用标签时间Petri网系统的修正状态类图,得到与观测到的时间标签序列一致的有效路径,从而获得初步的故障诊断结果;然后,根据检测到的故障类的概率密度分布,并结合Gauss-Kronrod积分法计算每个故障类的发生概率;接着,将时间段细分,进而预测故障类发生的时间,实现对DES的故障预防;最后,以交替位协议为实例验证所提出方法的可利用性.实验结果表明,所提出方法能够有效地估计故障发生的概率,并提供有针对性的故障发生时间信息;其应用有望在实际工业系统中提高故障诊断的效率和准确性,且能够提前预防故障的发生来降低系统故障造成的损失.To solve the fault prediction of partially observed discrete event systems(DES),this paper proposes a prediction method for the fault probability and occurrence date of the DES based on labeled time Petri nets(LTPNs).By using the modified state class graph of an LTPN system,the feasible paths consistent with an observed time label sequence are computed so as to establish the preliminary fault diagnosis results.The occurrence probability of each detected fault class is calculated based on its probability density distribution and the Gauss-Kronrod integration method.Subsequently,the occurrence date of each fault class is predicted,enabling proactive prevention of faults.Finally,the availability of the proposed method is demonstrated through an alternating bit protocol.The results show that the proposed method can effectively estimate the fault probability and provide targeted information on fault occurrence date.In particular,its application is expected to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of fault diagnosis in practical systems,and prevent the occurrence of faults in advance,reducing unnecessary loss caused by system failures.

关 键 词：离散事件系统 Petri网 概率密度函数 Gauss-Kronrod积分法 故障诊断 故障预测 

分 类 号：TP271[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]