基于前景理论的多阶段多情景多部门应急决策的矩阵方法  

Matrix approach for multi-stage,multi-scenario,and multi-department emergency decision-making based on prospect theory

作　　者：王彪 薛源 陈萍萍 郭影 WANG Biao;XUE Yuan;CHEN Ping-ping;GUO Ying(School of Management,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;The Digitalized&Intelligent Management and Decision Simulation Laboratory of Colleges and Universities in Shandong Province,Jinan 250100,China;Business School,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学管理学院,济南250100 [2]山东省高等学校数智管理与决策模拟实验室,济南250100 [3]山东师范大学商学院,济南250358

出　　处：《控制与决策》2025年第2期655-664,共10页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(12101366,72134004,72104131,72201156)。

摘　　要：针对一类多阶段多情景多部门应急决策过程,考虑心理偏好及多部门协同,基于前景理论构建指标情景值矩阵和综合情景值矩阵等新矩阵,提出恒定区间下的应急决策矩阵方法,对事态发展进行全方面评估,以实现科学高效决策.给出前景值计算的矩阵形式,使其可程序化,能够有效应对突发事件多阶段的动态性(部门变动和方案变动),提升决策效率.恒定区间的引入描述了决策者的心理承受能力,并进一步讨论恒定区间正负变化的影响以优化应急决策流程.例如,当承受能力增加时,虽不改变各方案情景值的大小关系,但可能影响最优方案的选择,而某些情形下却不影响.最后,针对某化工厂实例进行分析,验证了该矩阵方法的有效性,对处理这类应急决策具有较好的应用价值.This article addresses a class of multi-stage,multi-scenario,multi-department emergency decision-making processes,considering psychological preferences and interdepartmental collaboration.Based on prospect theory,some new matrices such as indicator scenario value matrices and comprehensive scenario value matrices are constructed.Under the framework of constant interval,an emergency decision-making matrix method is proposed to evaluate developments in a comprehensive manner,thereby achieving scientific and efficient decision-making.The article presents the matrix form of prospect value calculation,making it programmable to effectively cope with the dynamics of multi-stage emergencies(departmental and scenario changes),thus enhancing decision-making efficiency.The constant interval is introduced to describe the psychological tolerance of decision-makers,and the influence of positive and negative changes in the constant interval is further discussed to optimize the emergency decision-making process.For example,when the tolerance increases,although it does not change the relationship between the magnitude values of each scenario,it may affect the choice of the optimal solution,while in certain situations,it does not have an effect.Finally,an analysis of a chemical plant case study confirms the effectiveness of this matrix method and demonstrates its valuable application in handling such emergency decision-making situations.

关 键 词：应急决策 前景理论 矩阵理论 动态决策 优化 心理偏好 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]