竞争性选举的智能转型:动力机制、技术过程与政治影响  

Intelligent Transformation of Competitive Elections:Driving Mechanisms,Technological Processes,and Political Impacts

作　　者：王中原 Wang Zhongyuan

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会科学高等研究院,上海市200433 [2]复旦大学国家发展与智能治理综合实验室(教育部),上海市200433 [3]复旦大学复杂决策分析中心,上海市200433

出　　处：《政治学研究》2025年第1期108-118,189,190,共13页CASS Journal of Political Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“算法治理视域下政府数字化转型的实践困境及其破解机制研究”(21CZZ039)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：技术与政治的复杂关系一直是政治学研究的前沿议题。新兴的人工智能技术在重塑人类经济社会生活的同时,势必冲击现代政治的运行。新一代智能技术会被引入竞争性选举吗?智能科技如何驱动选举政治的变革?选举智能化将带来何种政治影响?本文发现,以生成式AI和交互式AI为代表的新一代人工智能技术正渗透选举过程,开启“智能选举3.0”时代。在动因层面,“竞选白炽化”与“选举商业化”合力推动了新兴技术在选举领域的应用。在机制层面,生成式AI驱动选举内容策略转型,交互式AI驱动选举传播策略变革,两者相互赋能和彼此强化,重构选举生态。在影响层面,新兴智能技术助推选举行动者联盟的重组及其行动策略的重置,重塑选民偏好的形成、表达和认同过程。新兴智能技术在赋能选举组织效率的同时,正对选举民主带来多重负面冲击。尤其在政治极化的背景下,智能选举面临严峻的失范风险,制约了竞争性选举政治功能的实现,并对经典政治学理论构成挑战。The intricate interplay between technology and politics has long been at the forefront of political science inquiries.Emerging artificial intelligence technologies,while revolutionizing various aspects of human economic and social life,are poised to redefine the dynamics of modern politics.Will cutting-edge AI technologies,including generative AI and conversational AI,influence competitive elections?How will these AI advancements reshape the landscape of Western-style electoral politics?What political implications will emerge from this AI-driven electoral transformation?This article unveils that the new generation of AI technologies represented by generative AI and conversational AI is permeating the electoral processes,heralding the dawn of“Intelligent Elections 3.0”.On the motivational front,increasing“election competitiveness”and“election commercialization”are propelling the adoption of newly emerging technologies in electoral practices.As for the mechanisms,generative AI is revolutionizing election content strategies,while conversational AI is driving shifts in election communication strategies.The two complement and reinforce each other,reshaping the electoral ecosystem fundamentally.At the impact level,emerging AI technologies catalyze the restructuring of the election alliances and the recalibration of their action strategies,shaping the formation,expression,and alignment processes of voter preferences.While empowering the efficiency of electoral organizations,emerging AI technologies also yield a multitude of adverse effects on electoral democracy.Especially amid escalating political polarization,AI-driven elections face heightened risks of misconduct,impeding the realization of competitive electoral functions and prompting a reassessment of classical political theories,thus charting new avenues of research in the field of“Technopolitics”.

关 键 词：生成式AI 交互式AI 竞争性选举 技术政治学 

分 类 号：D034.4[政治法律—政治学] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]