基于动力学模型的北京市某大学诺如病毒暴发疫情流行趋势和防控效果分析  

Analysis of the epidemic trend and prevention and control effectiveness of norovirus infection outbreak at a university in Beijing based on dynamic models

作　　者：韦懿芸[1] 刘锋[2] WEI Yiyun;LIU Feng(Information Statistics Department,Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Beijing City Haidian District,100094,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市海淀区疾病预防控制中心信息统计科,100094 [2]北京市海淀区疾病预防控制中心传染病与地方病控制科,100094

出　　处：《传染病信息》2025年第1期76-82,共7页Infectious Disease Information

基　　金：首都卫生发展科研专项(首发2022-1G-3014)。

摘　　要：目的采用传播动力学模型模拟北京市某大学诺如病毒感染暴发疫情流行趋势,评价隔离及综合措施的防控效果。方法根据2019—2020年北京市海淀区疾控中心调查的一起诺如病毒感染暴发疫情资料,构建易感者-潜隐期者-显性感染者-隐性感染者-移出者和易感者-潜隐期者-显性感染者-隐性感染者-隔离者-移出者模型,对该起疫情发展趋势进行评估,对隔离措施和综合措施的防控效果进行评价。结果该疫情在无干预情况下,基本再生数(R0)为12.98(95%CI:12.23~13.62),持续22 d,罹患率为80.00%。疫情第4 d疾病预防控制中心介入后采取隔离措施和消毒、健康教育等综合措施,预计持续时间缩短39.13%,罹患率降至0.56%。受节假日影响,疫情第9 d出现新扩散,有效再生数Rt为4.81(95%CI:4.11~5.48),较疾控中心介入后预计的疫情持续时间延长3 d,发病例数上升23.89%。结论传播动力学模型可有效模拟诺如病毒感染暴发疫情传播过程,能对隔离措施和消毒等综合防控措施进行效果评估,对疫情防控具有积极作用。Objective To simulate the outbreak trend of norovirus infection in a university in Beijing using transmission dynamics models,and to evaluate the prevention and control effectiveness of isolation measures and comprehensive measures.Methods Based on the data of an outbreak of norovirus infection investigated by Haidian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing from 2019 to 2020,we constructed the SEIAR and SEIAQR models to evaluate the development of the epidemic,and the effectiveness of isolation measures and comprehensive measures for prevention and control.Results The basic reproduction number(R0)of this epidemic without intervention was 12.98(95%CI:12.23~13.62),duration of outbreak was 22 days,and total attack rate was 80.00%.On the fourth day of the epidemic,the CDC intervened and implemented isolation measure and comprehensive measures such as isolation,disinfection,and health promotion.It was expected that the duration would be reduced by 39.13%and the incidence rate would drop to 0.56%.Due to the impact of holidays,there was a new spread of the epidemic on the 9th day,with an effective reproduction number of 4.81(95%CI:4.11~5.48),which was 3 days longer than the expected duration after intervention by CDC,and the number of cases increased by 23.89%.Conclusions The transmission dynamics model can effectively simulate the spread process of Norovirus infection outbreaks,evaluate the effectiveness of comprehensive prevention and control measures such as isolation and disinfection,and have a positive effect on epidemic prevention and control.

关 键 词：动力学 诺如病毒 暴发 流行趋势 防控效果 

分 类 号：R183.4[医药卫生—流行病学]