底线思维下中国天然气供需平衡研究  

China's natural gas supply and demand balance embedded in bottomline thinking

作　　者：柴建[1] 张晓空 贾锐宁 寇红红 CHAI Jian;ZHANG Xiao-kong;JIA Rui-ning;KOU Hong-hong(School of Economics and Management,Xidian University,Xi'an 710126,China)

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院,西安710126

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2024年第12期1-18,共18页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71874133,72373116);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2024JC-JCQN-40);陕西省高校青年创新团队项目(2020-68);陕西省秦创原“科学家+工程师”队伍建设项目(2022QCY-17).

摘　　要：当前俄乌战争将油气安全问题推到了新的战略高度,正确研判未来天然气供需形势对于天然气能源安全重大工程建设具有重要战略意义.本文创新性地将天然气消费划分为生存、生产和非底线消费三类,从而在考虑多要素协同不确定性条件下预测中长期天然气消费,以做好底线思维下天然气供需形势的综合研判.研究结果表明:第一,在三种可采储量情景下,天然气产量分别于2030年、2033年和2037年达峰,其峰值产量分别为2441.46亿m3、3464.92亿m3和4227.95亿m3;第二,至2030年,生产消费最低占底线消费的31.70%,但其年均增速远超生存消费;第三,2025年和2030年底线消费分别达到3057.19亿m3~3578.61亿m3和3704.95亿m3~4730.81亿m3,若严格落实梯级用气思维,在任何产量情景下生存消费均基本可以实现自给自足,而“十五五”末天然气产量最乐观情景下生产消费最低自给率不超过52%,甚至1倍情景下生产消费可能将完全对外依赖;第四,在天然气产量2倍或1.5倍情景可将天然气对外依存度严格控制在50%以内;利用不同情景组合来降低天然气对外依存度的效果有限,天然气对外依存度最高降幅为8.71%.研究结论对于保障我国天然气供需平衡,从而落实能源安全战略具有重要意义.The current Russia-Ukraine war has elevated the issue of oil and gas security to a new strategic height.Accurately assessing the future supply and demand fornatural gas is of great strategic significance for the construction of major natural gas energy security projects.This paper innovatively divides natural gas consumption into three categories:survival,production,and non-bottom-line consumption.It predicts medium-and long-term natural gas consumption under conditions of multi-factor collaborative uncertainty and makes a comprehensive study and judgment of the natural gas supply and demand situation under the bottom-line thinking.The results show that,first,under the three scenarios of recoverable reserves,natural gas production will peak in 2030,2033,and 2037,with peak productions of 2441.46,346.492 and 422.795 billion cubic meters,respectively.Second,by 2030,the lowest production consumption accounts for 31.70%of the bottom-line consumption,but its average annual growth rate far exceeds that of survival consumption.Third,the bottom-line consumption in 2025 and 2030 will reach 3057.19~3578.61 and 3704.95~4730.81 billion cubic meters,respectively.If the cascade gas consumption thinking is strictly implemented,subsistence consumption can basically achieve self-sufficiency under any production scenario.However,the lowest self-sufficiency rate for production and consumption under the most optimistic scenario of natural gas production at the end of the“15th Five-Year Plan”does not exceed 52%.Furthermore,even under ascenario of one times production and consumption,there may be complete dependence on external sources.Fourth,in the scenario of two times or 1.5 times natural gas production,the external dependence on natural gas can be strictly controlled within 50%;however,the effect of using different scenarios to reduce this external dependence is limited,with a maximum reduction of 8.71%.The research conclusions are of great significance for ensuring the balance between the supply and demand of natural gas in my

关 键 词：天然气 底线思维 能源安全 底线消费 供需平衡 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济]