中国财政支出增长和经济增长长期关系的实证研究  

Empirical Research on the Long-Term Relationship Between China’s Fiscal Expenditure Growth and Economic Growth

作　　者：王磊 王小利[2] WANG Lei;WANG Xiaoli(Bank of Inner Mongolia Co.,Ltd.,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010000,China;Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010000,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古银行股份有限公司,内蒙古呼和浩特010000 [2]内蒙古工业大学,内蒙古呼和浩特010000

出　　处：《金融理论与教学》2025年第1期88-95,共8页Financial Theory and Teaching

基　　金：内蒙古自治区党委组织部“内蒙古自治区草原英才创新团队滚动支持项目”阶段性成果。

摘　　要：研究利用1953—2023年间中国财政支出增长与GDP增长的时间序列数据,对中国财政支出增长和经济增长的长期关系进行了最小二乘法与Granger因果检验相结合的实证研究。实证结果表明,中国财政支出增长和经济增长的关系具有明显的分阶段特征。改革开放以前,财政支出对经济增长的弹性系数大于1,财政支出增长明显内生于经济增长。改革开放至今,财政支出增长依然在一定程度上内生于经济增长,但内生性有所减弱;二者存在着单向的因果关系,经济增长是财政支出增长的Granger原因,而财政支出增长不是经济增长的Granger原因。结论部分对实证检验的结果进行了理论与政策的解释。The paper,using time series data of China’s fiscal expenditure growth and GDP growth from 1953 to 2023,makes an empirical research on the long-term relationship between fiscal expenditure growth and economic growth of China by least squares method and Granger causality test.The empirical research results show that the relationship between China’s fiscal expenditure growth and economic growth has obvious stage-by-stage characteristics.Before the reform and opening up,the elasticity coefficient of fiscal expenditure growth to economic growth was greater than 1,and fiscal expenditure growth was obviously endogenous to economic growth.Since the reform and opening up,to some extent,fiscal expenditure growth has still been endogenous to economic growth,but the endogenesis has weakened.There is a one-way causality between them.Economic growth is the Granger cause of fiscal expenditure growth,while fiscal expenditure growth is not the Granger cause of economic growth.The conclusion part explains the results of the empirical test in theory and policy.

关 键 词：财政支出 经济增长 长期关系 GRANGER因果检验 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]