中国经济增长核算及仿真预测研究  

Research on China′s Economic Growth Accounting and Simulation Forecasting

作　　者：周天勇[1] 邵长銮 ZHOU Tianyong;SHAO Changluan(National Economic Engineering Laboratory,Northeast University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100096,China;School of Economics,Northeast University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 166012,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学国民经济工程实验室,北京100096 [2]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连166012

出　　处：《财经理论研究》2025年第1期1-11,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(17BJL002)。

摘　　要：厘清中国经济增长结构,挖掘和探索中国经济发展新动能,对推进经济高质量发展至关重要。通过梳理自改革开放以来中国经济增长的主要驱动力和相关理论,指出传统增长模型在解释体制改革如何释放生产力方面的局限性。此外,通过构建中国经济增长核算及仿真预测模型,将流动实体变量与体制变量纳入模型中,以刻画体制因素对中国经济运行系统的内生性影响。结果表明,通过进一步深化体制改革,优化土地、劳动力和资本等生产要素的市场流动性与配置效率,为提高中国经济高质量发展水平提供有力支撑,预计未来十五年内中国年均经济增长率可达到5.5%。这不仅为理解中国经济增长的体制因素贡献了理论视角,也为制定深化改革的政策提供了数据支持和实践参考。It is crucial for promoting high-quality economic growth to clarify the structure of China′s economic growth and explore new driving forces for economic development.This paper points out the limitations of traditional growth models in explaining how institutional reforms release productivity by reviewing the main driving forces behind China′s economic growth since the reform and opening up,as well as the relevant theories.Furthermore,it incorporates both flow entity variables and institutional variables to depict the endogenous impact of institutional factors on China′s economic operating system by constructing a model for China′s economic growth accounting and simulation forecasting.The results indicate that by further deepening institutional reforms and optimizing the market liquidity and allocation efficiency of production factors such as land,labor,and capital,strong support can be provided for improving the level of high-quality economic development in China.It is projected that the average annual economic growth rate in China over the next 15 years could reach 5.5%,which not only contributes a theoretical perspective for understanding the institutional factors behind China′s economic growth but also provides data support and practical references for formulating policies to deepen reforms.

关 键 词：体制改革 增长核算 仿真预测 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济]