中国连片开发扶贫政策效果评估与前景展望  

Effect Evaluation and Prospect Outlook of China′s Poverty Alleviation Policy for Contiguous Development

作　　者：卢盛峰[1] 杨光照 LU Shengfeng;YANG Guangzhao(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《财经理论研究》2025年第1期12-37,共26页Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790060);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073103、72473108、72073145)。

摘　　要：通过构建包括2000-2020年村/社区面板、企业面板和县级面板在内的丰富数据集,使用断点回归设计系统评估了中国连片开发扶贫政策的经济效果。研究结果表明:中国连片特困地区扶贫开发短期内大幅度提升了农村可支配收入,同时对异质性企业产生了复杂影响,尤其提高了劳动密集型产业的全要素生产率和产出;促进了中长期经济增长,具体表现为提高了宏观工业产出、实现了区域内部门间劳动力转移、总体上提高了资本存量和生产率,同时重塑了基础设施和公共服务布局;在后续一系列稳健性检验中,上述结论依然显著成立。在此基础上,提出了巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、引导土地经营权有序流转、优化农村公共服务空间布局和推动乡村产业发展等建议,并对未来中国巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果的政策制定进行了前景展望。A rich dataset,including village/community panel data,enterprise panel data,and county panel data from 2000 to 2020,was constructed to systematically evaluate the economic effects of China′s contiguous poverty alleviation and development policy using a regression discontinuity design.The findings indicate that the poverty alleviation and development efforts in contiguous impoverished areas significantly increased rural disposable income in the short term while exerting complex impacts on heterogeneous enterprises,particularly improving the total factor productivity and output of labor-intensive industries.The policy also promoted medium-to long-term economic growth,mainly by increasing macro-level industrial output,facilitating inter-sectoral labor transfer within regions,and overall enhancing capital stock and productivity.Additionally,it reshaped the layout of infrastructure and public services.These conclusions remained robust through a series of subsequent robustness checks.Based on these findings,recommendations are proposed,including consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation,guiding the orderly transfer of land management rights,optimizing the spatial layout of rural public services,and promoting rural industrial development.Furthermore,the study offers a forward-looking perspective on the policy design for consolidating poverty alleviation achievements in China.

关 键 词：连片特困地区 扶贫开发 工业化 全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]