数字经济与粮食安全——基于粮食生产稳定性的视角分析及县域证据  

Digital Economy and Food Security——An Analysis from the Perspective of Food Production Stability and County-Level Evidence

作　　者：张永奇 单德朋[2] ZHANG Yongqi;SHAN Depeng(College of Economics,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,Sichuan,China;College of Economics,Southwest Minzu University,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学经济学院,四川成都611130 [2]西南民族大学经济学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《财经理论研究》2025年第1期104-112,共9页Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(22YJC630033)。

摘　　要：探讨数字经济对粮食生产稳定性的影响及其机制,对加快建设数字中国和确保粮食安全具有重要意义。基于2014-2021年1590个县域的平衡面板数据,采用多种回归方法,实证检验了数字经济对粮食生产稳定性的影响及其机制。研究发现:其一,数字经济显著提升了粮食生产稳定性。采用多种方法展开检验后,该结论依然成立。其二,机制检验发现,数字经济可以通过城乡融合、农业全要素生产率以及经济增长三条路径影响粮食生产稳定性。农业全要素生产率的中介效果更加显著。其三,异质性分析表明,数字经济对粮食主产区与经济发达地区的粮食生产稳定性促进效果更强。其四,进一步分析发现,数字经济与实体经济具有协同作用,两者深度融合能够有效匹配农业经营主体的现实所需,更好地提升了粮食生产稳定性。在新发展阶段,应以县域为中心发展数字经济,并且要结合县域资源禀赋,有针对性地推进实体经济与数字经济深度融合,完善联农带农利益机制,才能更好地保障粮食安全。It is of great significance for accelerating the construction of a digital China and ensuring food security by exploring the impact and mechanisms of the digital economy on food production stability.This study employs multiple regression methods to empirically examine the effects and mechanisms of the digital economy on food production stability based on balanced panel data from 1,590 counties between 2014 and 2021.The findings are as follows:First,the digital economy significantly enhances food production stability,and this conclusion holds across various testing methods.Second,mechanism analysis indicates that the digital economy affects food production stability through three pathways:urban-rural integration,agricultural total factor productivity,and economic growth,with the mediating effect of agricultural total factor productivity being more prominent.Third,heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the digital economy has a stronger effect on promoting food production stability in major grain-producing areas and economically developed regions.Fourth,further analysis shows that the digital economy and the real economy exhibit synergy,and their deep integration can effectively meet the practical needs of agricultural operators,thereby better enhancing food production stability.In the new development stage,the digital economy should be developed with a focus on counties,leveraging local resource endowments,promoting the deep integration of the real and digital economies,and improving the benefit-sharing mechanisms for farmers to better ensure food security.

关 键 词：数字经济 粮食生产稳定性 粮食安全 农业全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]